In its latest report on the war in Ukraine, published on Sunday night, the US think tank wrote that “specific parts of Ukrainian territory,” which are currently under Russian occupation, “are important for the long-term viability of an independent Ukraine.”
Ukraine must regain east and south to be secure
The US experts stressed that Ukraine “has every right to fight to liberate all the territory Russia has illegally seized, particularly in light of the continued atrocities and ethnic cleansing Russia is perpetrating in the areas it occupies.”
The ISW added that Ukraine’s insistence on regaining control of its territory to the internationally-recognized borders “is not an absolutist or extremist demand—it is the normal position of a state defending itself against an unprovoked attack as part of a war of conquest.”
Moreover, “it is also the default position of the international community under international law, as it should be,” the Washington-based think tank said.
However, “Ukraine must regain certain specific areas currently under Russian occupation” also in order “to ensure its long-term security and economic viability,” the US experts added.
Kherson, Zaporizhzhia, Donbas, Crimea
Ukraine’s ability to defend itself against a future Russian attack requires liberating most of the Kherson and Zaporizhia regions in the south and southeast of the country, according to the ISW.
In addition, “Ukraine’s economic health requires liberating the rest of Zaporhizia Oblast and much of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts" in eastern Ukraine, "including at least some territory Russia seized in 2014,” the ISW said.
Further, Ukraine’s security would be “materially enhanced” by liberating Crimea, which would also “benefit NATO’s ability to secure its southeastern flank,” the US experts added.
Putin’s intentions toward Ukraine ‘unlikely to change’
The think tank warned that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s "intentions toward Ukraine are unlikely to change whether or not a ceasefire or some other settlement occurs.”
It added that the Kremlin "would use any suspension of hostilities to consolidate its gains and freeze the frontline in the best configuration Putin can get to prepare for future coercion and aggression against Ukraine.”
Therefore, “those seeking enduring peace in Ukraine must resist the temptation to freeze the lines of combat short of Ukraine’s international borders in ways that set conditions for renewed conflict on Russia’s terms,” the ISW concluded.
Air strikes on Ukrainian cities
Meanwhile, Russian forces on Monday morning attacked the Ukrainian capital Kyiv with Iranian-made kamikaze drones, Polish state news agency PAP reported.
By 9 a.m. local time, authorities confirmed four strikes in the city, including a hit on a residential building in the central Shevchenkivskiy area, the Ukrainska Pravda website reported.
Mayor Vitali Klitschko later said that 18 people have been rescued from the damaged building, while two more remained under the rubble, according to the PAP news agency.
Meanwhile, Russian forces shelled Ukraine’s southeastern Dnipropetrovsk region throughout the night, using Grad MLRS and heavy artillery, Ukrainska Pravda reported.
One of the Russian missiles hit an energy infrastructure facility, causing a major fire there, PAP reported, citing Valentyn Reznichenko, Head of Dnipropetrovsk Oblast Military Administration.
Russian missiles on Monday morning also targeted critical infrastructure in the southeastern Zaporizhzhia province, cutting off the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant from the grid, as well as critical infrastructure in the northeastern Sumy region, and infrastructure in the southwestern Odesa province, among other areas, Ukrainska Pravda reported.
Ukrainian counteroffensive in Kherson region
Meanwhile on the frontlines, Ukrainian forces were "conducting a counteroffensive push in Kherson Oblast as of October 16,” the ISW reported.
According to the US think tank, several Russian sources reported “renewed Ukrainian assaults in the Kherson direction,” while “Ukrainian sources reported higher-than-average numbers of daily shelling and missile strikes, but Ukrainian forces are maintaining operational silence about any operations.”
The ISW cited Ukrainian sources as reporting that “Russian occupation officials in Kherson City are stepping up filtration measures against Ukrainian partisans and accelerating efforts to evacuate key materials and personnel from Kherson to Crimea.”
Meanwhile, Ukrainian officials said on Sunday that Russian forces in the eastern Donetsk region, were "falsely claiming to have captured several towns near Bakhmut in the past several days," even though "Ukrainian forces have held their lines against Russian attacks,” according to the ISW.
The US experts assessed that “Russian forces are likely falsifying claims of advances in the Bakhmut area to portray themselves as making gains in at least one sector amid continuing losses in northeast and southern Ukraine.”
Monday is day 236 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
(pm/gs)
Source: PAP, understandingwar.org, pravda.com.ua