The US think tank made the assessment in its latest report on the war in Ukraine, published on Thursday night.
It said that Russian troops were "continuing to withdraw some elements" from the Kherson region, "but it is still unclear if Russian forces will fight for Kherson City.”
The ISW reported that Kherson City occupation administration deputy head Kirill Stremousov stated on November 3 that Russian troops “will most likely leave for the left (eastern) bank” of the Dnipro River and urged civilians to evacuate from Kherson City “as quickly as possible.”
According to the US experts, Russian forces were "continuing to prepare fallback positions on the left (eastern) bank of the Dnipro River while continuing to set up defensive positions northwest of Kherson City and transporting additional mobilised forces there, despite Stremousov’s statement.”
The Washington-based think tank said: “Some Russian elite units — such as airborne forces and naval infantry — are reportedly continuing to operate on the right (western) bank of the Dnipro River and their full withdrawal from northern Kherson Oblast would be a clearer indicator that Russian forces will not fight for Kherson City or settlements on the right bank.”
Moreover, Stremousov “hypothesised about the probability of fighting in Kherson City and northern Kherson Oblast in the next two weeks, which may suggest that he anticipates some battles for Kherson City despite his comments about withdrawal,” the ISW reported.
The US experts described Stremousov as “an unreliable source who has consistently issued contradictory statements and made emotional responses to events,” adding that Stremousov’s public statements “may be clouded by personal fears of losing his position within the occupation government.”
Russian flag removed from administration building
The ISW said that both Ukrainian and Russian sources extensively discussed “the reported closure of some Russian checkpoints in the vicinity of Kherson City, the theft of city’s monuments, and the removal of a Russian flag from the Kherson Oblast Administration building as indicators of an ongoing Russian withdrawal from the city.”
For instance, a Russian outlet claimed that “Russian officials removed the flag because the occupation administration moved to Henichesk by the Crimean border,” the US think tank reported.
However, the ISW noted that “while the relocation of the Kherson Oblast occupation government may suggest that Russian forces are preparing to abandon Kherson City, it may equally indicate that they are setting conditions for urban combat within the city.”
The US experts added that “similar reports may arise in coming days given the ongoing forced evacuation of civilians from both right and left banks of the Dnipro River but may not indicate an immediate withdrawal of Russian forces from Kherson City.”
According to the iSW, “the disposition of Russian airborne forces remains the best indicator of Russian intentions.”
Russia makes 'premature offensive pushes' in Donetsk region
The US think tank also reported that “Russian forces prematurely impaled an insufficient concentration of mobilised personnel on offensive pushes near Bakhmut and Vuhledar, Donetsk Oblast.”
According to the ISW, the premature offensive pushes mean that Russian forces are “wasting the fresh supply of mobilised personnel on marginal gains towards operationally insignificant settlements."
Russian forces continue ‘filtration’ of Ukrainian population
Russian forces in Ukraine’s eastern Luhansk region and the southern Kherson province were continuing “filtration measures” against the local population, abducting people and taking them to unknown destinations, according to Ukraine’s General Staff, Polish state news agency PAP reported on Friday.
Ukraine’s military command said in its latest operational update: “In the village of Pisky, Starobilskyi district, Luhansk Oblast, representatives of the so-called commandant's office carried out filtration measures against the local population."
It added that “about 30 citizens were abducted and taken to an unknown destination,” as cited by the Ukrainska Pravda website.
Russia deploys ‘blocking units’ against retreating soldiers
The UK Ministry of Defence reported on Friday that “due to low morale and reluctance to fight, Russian forces have probably started deploying ‘barrier troops’ or ‘blocking units.’"
In their latest intelligence update, the British analysts said that "these units threaten to shoot their own retreating soldiers in order to compel offensives and have been used in previous conflicts by Russian forces.”
New team of IAEA experts arrive at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear station
Meanwhile, a new team of four experts from the United Nations International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) arrived at Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhya Nuclear Power Plant on Thursday to replace four other experts who had been on the site for the past four weeks, the IAEA’s Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said in a statement on Thursday night, as quoted by the PAP news agency.
Friday is day 254 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
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Source: PAP, understandingwar.org, pravda.com.ua, UK Ministry of Defence, iaea.org