The US think tank made the prediction in its latest analysis of the war in Ukraine, published on Monday night, Polish state news agency PAP reported.
Russia likely to redeploy troops from Kherson to Donetsk
The ISW wrote: “Russian forces will likely recommit troops to Donetsk Oblast after leaving the right bank of Kherson Oblast, which will likely lead to an intensification of operations around Bakhmut, Donetsk City, and in western Donetsk Oblast.”
According to the Washington-based think tank, “the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) escalated claims of Russian territorial gains in Donetsk Oblast on November 13 and 14, likely to emphasise that Russian forces are intensifying operations in Donetsk Oblast following withdrawal from the right bank of Kherson Oblast.”
Thus, for instance, “the Russian MoD claimed that Russian forces completed the capture of Mayorsk (20 km south of Bakhmut) on November 13 and of Pavlivka (45 km southwest of Donetsk City) on November 14 after several weeks of not making claims of Russian territorial gains,” the ISW reported.
Now Russia is likely to redeploy troops from the Kherson region to Donetsk province and intensify its operations around Bakhmut, Donetsk City and the west part of the region, the US experts predicted.
According to the ISW, Russian forces "will likely make gains in these areas in the coming days and weeks, but these gains are unlikely to be operationally significant.”
“The Russian MoD is likely making more concrete territorial claims in order to set information conditions to frame Russian successes in Donetsk Oblast and detract from discontent regarding losses in Kherson Oblast,” the US think tank said.
Zelensky tells G20 ‘now is the time’ to stop Russia’s war
Meanwhile, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky has told a G20 summit of world leaders on the Indonesian island of Bali he was convinced that "now is the time when the Russian destructive war must and can be stopped," the kyivindependent.com website reported.
In a video address from Kyiv, Zelensky urged the G20 leaders: “Ukraine should not be offered to conclude compromises with its conscience, sovereignty, territory and independence.”
New wave of Ukraine refugees in winter?
For Russian President Vladimir Putin, the mood among the Kremlin’s ruling elite matters much more than the views of the Russian public, according to journalist Michał Kacewicz.
Russian elites, meanwhile, are playing for survival, hoping that the conflict in Ukraine will be frozen, Kacewicz wrote on the belsat.eu website on Tuesday, adding that “the strategy of survival has its limitations.”
Poland on Monday unveiled a new, bigger headquarters for the Polish Institute in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, the PAP news agency reported.
Located in the historic neighbourhood of Podil, the new facility will enable the Polish government to promote Polish culture in Ukraine on a bigger scale, officials told PAP.
Meanwhile, Poland is expecting a new wave of refugees from Ukraine in the winter, due to Russian attacks on the country’s energy infrastructure, Polish presidential aide Andrzej Dera has said.
Dera, who is a senior aide to Polish President Andrzej Duda, on Monday met with Poles living in the Canadian capital Ottawa. He thanked them from helping Ukraine and cautioned against “war fatigue” and the international public becoming “used to the war,” the PAP news agency reported.
Tuesday is day 265 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
(pm/gs)
Source: PAP, understandingwar.org, kyivindependent.com, president.gov.ua, belsat.eu