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ISW analysis: ceasefire in Ukraine favors Russia, unlikely to yield concessions

27.01.2024 13:15
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) has assessed that any ceasefire in Ukraine would predominantly benefit Russia, as Moscow would likely use this time to rebuild and regroup its forces for further offensives.
Photo:
Photo:PAP/Abaca/ Ignacio Marin

According to the ISW, a ceasefire in the current conflict in Ukraine would be advantageous to Russia. The think tank emphasizes that Russia's longstanding demands for Ukrainian "neutrality" and a halt to NATO expansion are central to its invasion of Ukraine. Any concessions on these demands would signify a major strategic and rhetorical retreat for Russia’s Putin, which he is unlikely to consider at present.

Russian officials might show apparent interest in concessions regarding Ukraine's role in Western institutions to prompt preemptive actions on Ukraine's territorial integrity from the West. However, these overtures are assessed as unlikely to lead to actual Russian concessions. The ISW analysis indicates that Putin's goals include controlling Ukraine and weakening NATO, which he will pursue unless decisively defeated.

Source: PAP