"Several Russian financial, economic, and military indicators suggest that Russia is preparing for a large-scale conventional conflict with NATO, not imminently but likely on a shorter timeline than what some Western analysts have initially posited," the US think tank said in its latest analysis of Russia's military campaign in Ukraine.
It reported that the Russian military "continues to undertake structural reforms to simultaneously support the war in Ukraine while expanding Russia’s conventional capabilities in the long term in preparation for a potential future large-scale conflict with NATO."
Russia "continues efforts to circumvent international sanctions, and the International Monetary Fund assessed that Russia’s GDP will grow by 2.6 percent in 2024 and reported that Russia’s GDP grew faster than all Group of Seven (G7) countries’ economies in 2023," according to the Institute for the Study of War.
Russian President Vladimir Putin's "attempts to set conditions to stabilize Russia’s economy and finances are most likely part of Russian financial and domestic preparations for a potential future large-scale conflict with NATO and not just for a protracted war in Ukraine," the ISW assessed.
Polish President Andrzej Duda said in an interview with US broadcaster CNBC earlier this week that NATO must urgently increase its defence spending to ensure it does not become the next target of a Russian attack.
Citing unspecified German research, Duda warned that Putin was intensifying efforts to shift Russia to a war economy with the intention of being able to attack NATO as early as 2026 or 2027, the ISW noted.
Danish Defence Minister Troels Lund Poulsen said last month that new intelligence indicated that Russia could attempt to attack a NATO country within three to five years, according to the ISW.
Russia invaded Ukraine on February 24, 2022, starting the largest armed conflict in Europe since World War II.
Thursday is day 757 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
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Source: IAR, PAP, understandingwar.org