The report comes after Kyiv officials reported that Ukrainian forces successfully repelled nine attacks in the region on Saturday morning.
According to the ISW, the Russian offensive operations that commenced on Friday are limited in scope and are not indicative of a larger plan to encircle and seize the city of Kharkiv. Instead, the immediate goal appears to be to push Ukrainian troops back from the border with the Belgorod region and to move Russian forces within artillery range of Kharkiv.
The ISW report highlights that, while Russian troops achieved some tactical success on Friday, their operations employed relatively small forces and limited equipment.
Current estimates suggest Russia has deployed between 35,000 and 50,000 troops in the region, with potential for escalating the attacks. The analysts also noted Russian objectives to establish a 10-kilometer buffer zone along the border to facilitate artillery operations from their bases in Belgorod and to approach Kharkiv within similar distances.
Despite these movements, ISW assesses that the current Russian tactics do not demonstrate an intent to launch a full-scale offensive to capture Kharkiv, a task that would require a significantly larger and more complex military campaign. Analysts estimate that such an operation would necessitate between 200,000 to 300,000 troops, far exceeding the current Russian presence in the area.
The report also speculates that the timing of these Russian operations may be influenced by an attempt to maximize their strategic impact before the anticipated arrival of additional Western aid to Ukraine.
(jh)
Source: PAP