From Moscow’s perspective, damage to property or infrastructure mattered only insofar as it could trigger hysteria. But the Kremlin was careful not to push too far. Russia is not prepared for an outright confrontation with NATO—and, crucially, it fears the response.
By that measure, the provocation failed.
Poles did not panic. Anxiety about war is natural—war means death and devastation, and many here have family memories of past invasions. But fear is exactly what Vladimir Putin thrives on. Show fear to an attacking dog and it lunges harder. Show it a stick, and it tucks its tail.
This was a textbook act of hybrid warfare—aggression calibrated just below the threshold of open conflict, meant to unsettle societies and probe defences.
Such episodes will recur, not because Poland is weak or unprepared, but because Russia has chosen to wage a long, grinding campaign against the West.
Poland’s political class, for once, rose to the occasion. Not perfectly, but well enough. The show of unity reassured citizens and blunted Russia’s effort to deepen domestic divisions.
Moscow’s strategy is clear: pit one half of Poland against the other, fuel the notion that “this government isn’t worth dying for,” and sap the will to resist.
But solidarity across party lines signals to the Kremlin—and to NATO allies—that Poland understands what is at stake. The fight is not for a government, but for the nation itself.
Equally important was the allied response. By invoking NATO’s Article 4, Warsaw ensured the incursion was treated as a collective issue, not a Polish problem.
That solidarity matters. Left unanswered, provocations could escalate—from shadowy "little green men" in the Baltics to outright attacks on NATO soil.
Russia also hoped to manipulate Western opinion through disinformation, portraying Poland as hysterical and reckless.
Instead, firm statements from Washington, Brussels and major European capitals undercut that narrative.
As ancient Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu wrote, “strike alliances and you win before the battle begins.”
Poland’s military response, backed by allied assets, was measured and effective.
Critics point to the high cost of shooting down cheap drones, but that misses the point. Israel’s Iron Dome faces the same imbalance—defence always costs more than offence. What deters aggression is not cost accounting, but resilience, solidarity and the certainty of consequences.
Sanctions, increased military aid to Ukraine, and a refusal to be intimidated are the real answers to Putin’s provocations.
The risk of escalation remains. Russia is unpredictable, and exercises like the upcoming Zapad-2025 war games will almost certainly bring more tests.
War cannot be ruled out. But paradoxically, the more prepared Poland and NATO are—militarily, politically and psychologically—the less likely it becomes.
This is ultimately a battle of nerves. If Poles remain calm, united and anchored in the NATO alliance, the Kremlin’s provocations will lose their bite. Fear feeds the Russian beast. Deny it fear, and it starves.
Witold Repetowicz
Witold Repetowicz. Photo: PR24/AK
The author is an assistant professor at the War Studies University in Warsaw.