Daniel Fried, a veteran US diplomat and now an analyst at the Washington-based Atlantic Council think tank, said a breakthrough in efforts to end Russia’s war in Ukraine would come only if Trump increased pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Fried was commenting on Sunday's talks between Trump and Zelensky at the US president's Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Florida.
Fears that the meeting could turn into a "trap" for Zelensky did not materialise, Fried said, adding that limited progress appeared to have been made, including on potential US security guarantees for Ukraine.
"It was not the worst day, but there was no breakthrough," Fried said, as cited by Polish state news agency PAP.
According to Fried, the core obstacles remain unchanged, including territorial issues, the delineation of a contact line separating the two sides’ forces and Russia’s continued hard-line stance.
He said this was evident in the Kremlin’s account of Trump's earlier conversation with Putin on Sunday.
Fried pointed to comments by Putin adviser Yuri Ushakov, who reiterated what he described as maximalist Russian demands, including the immediate handover by Ukraine of the remainder of the Donbas region and a rejection of a ceasefire.
"The Kremlin is not backing down and is not negotiating in good faith because it does not feel pressure from the Trump administration," Fried said, according to the PAP news agency.
He predicted that a confrontation between Trump and Putin would eventually be unavoidable if the US president intends to bring the war to an end, though he said that point had not yet been reached.
As evidence, Fried cited Trump’s flattering remarks about Putin, his public expressions of understanding for Moscow's rejection of a ceasefire and claims that Putin wants Ukraine to succeed economically.
"The more effort Trump invests in his 20-point plan, the harder it will be for Putin to keep stalling and avoiding a confrontation," Fried said, adding that it would be better for such a confrontation to occur sooner rather than later.
Putin will always push for better terms, regardless of any agreement reached, Fried also said.
"It is better for the confrontation to be over a good plan than a bad one," he added.
A settlement favourable to Ukraine remains possible, Fried said, but would require stronger US pressure on Russia and greater European commitments to security guarantees to deter renewed aggression.
Sanctions imposed on Russian oil companies Rosneft and Lukoil have had an impact, according to Fried, but will not alone force Putin to make concessions.
"Much more can and should be done," Fried said.
Daniel Fried. Photo: PAP/Leszek Szymański
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Source: PAP
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