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Nuclear weapon use in Ukraine highly unlikely: ISW report

10.03.2024 11:00
In its latest report on the Russian offensive campaign in Ukraine, published on Saturday, the American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) delves into a CNN report stating that Russia contemplated using nuclear weapons in Ukraine in 2022, prompting the USA to brace for such a scenario.
Damage from a Russian attack in the city of Chuhuiv in the Kharkiv region, March 8.  A Russian missile struck the city overnight, resulting in several people being injured.
Damage from a Russian attack in the city of Chuhuiv in the Kharkiv region, March 8. A Russian missile struck the city overnight, resulting in several people being injured.Photo: PAP/Mykola Kalyeniak

According to CNN, two senior officials from President Joe Biden's administration revealed that in 2022, the USA began "rigorously preparing" for a "tactical or battlefield" nuclear strike by Russia.

This action followed intelligence indicating discussions within Russian circles about the potential use of tactical nuclear weapons.

The reports suggest that the USA engaged its allies and reached out to representatives of the Kremlin while also requesting China and India to exert influence on Russia.

One administration official conceded that public statements from the leaders of China and India played a "helpful, persuasive" role.

ISW experts, referencing the CNN report, point out that in 2022, Russia launched an extensive information campaign against the West regarding the possible use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine. According to ISW, the purpose of the campaign was to "deter Western security assistance to Ukraine."

Analysts argue that the "red lines" set by Russia – conditions under which it would use nuclear weapons – have been crossed by Ukraine multiple times during the conflict. 

ISW suggests that many of these "red lines" are actually part of an information operation aimed at deterring "Ukrainian and Western action to defeat Russia’s invasion of Ukraine."

According to ISW, these crossed "red lines" include the Ukrainian counteroffensive and the reclaiming of territories occupied by Russia in the east and south of the country, as well as Sweden’s and Finland’s NATO accession. 

"ISW continues to assess that Russian nuclear use in Ukraine remains highly unlikely," the report emphasizes.

(ał)

Source: www.understandingwar.org