Russia–North Korea troop build-up
Ukrainian officials told CNN they expect an additional 25,000–30,000 North Korean troops to arrive “in the coming months,” on top of the 11,000 stealthily deployed last November. Roughly 4,000 of those initial soldiers were killed or wounded, Western officials estimate.
The assessment says Russia’s defense ministry can equip the incoming units and integrate them into existing formations, possibly committing them to offensive operations in occupied Ukrainian territory. Satellite images cited in the report show a Ropucha-class landing ship docking at Dunai port on 18 May and Il-76 cargo aircraft taxiing at North Korea’s Sunan airport in early June—routes analysts say mirrored last year’s clandestine troop transfers.
Joe Byrne of the UK-based Open Source Centre said the patterns “indicate the corridors previously used to move DPRK troops are active.” Jenny Town, a Korea specialist at the Stimson Center, called the 30,000-troop figure “high but feasible,” suggesting a phased deployment of 10,000–20,000 soldiers was more likely.
Strategic implications
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov argued the plan underscored Kremlin manpower problems and deepening reliance on “totalitarian regimes.” He warned that heavy casualties could politically endanger North Korean leader Kim Jong Un by decimating elite units.
Russia is simultaneously massing about 110,000 of its own troops near the eastern hub of Pokrovsk, Ukraine’s armed-forces commander Oleksandr Syrskyi said on Friday. Kyiv fears a fresh offensive there.
Expanded military ties
The troop surge follows widening Moscow–Pyongyang cooperation. In April, President Vladimir Putin confirmed the first North Korean deployment; in June, his envoy Sergei Shoigu visited Pyongyang for the second time in two weeks, announcing plans to import 1,000 North Korean sappers and 5,000 construction workers to Russia’s Kursk region.
South Korea’s intelligence agency has told lawmakers that personnel selections for overseas duty are under way and could begin as early as July or August. Seoul has also tracked Russian statements about another 6,000 North Korean mine-clearers and builders.
Combat integration appears to be deepening. TASS videos show mixed Russian and North Korean units training in urban warfare and anti-drone tactics, a shift from last year when language barriers kept Pyongyang’s soldiers in separate formations. A Russian trainer in one clip praised North Korean recruits, aged 23–27, as “not worse than ours.”
Weapons pipeline
Ukrainian intelligence documented at least 82 strikes by North Korean KN-23 and KN-24 ballistic missiles, including one that killed 11 civilians in Pokrovsk in January 2024.
Kyiv has also obtained translated North Korean artillery manuals, underscoring growing interoperability.
A recent report by 11 UN member states said Pyongyang supplied Russia with at least 100 ballistic missiles and nine million artillery shells last year; South Korea’s military believes another 3,000 North Korean troops deployed to Russia earlier in 2025.
Long-term stakes
Analyst Town said Kim seeks “blood debt” leverage over Moscow, accepting short-term losses for longer-term gains.
If the full 30,000-strong deployment proceeds, it would mark North Korea’s biggest foreign military venture in decades and a significant escalation of its commitment to Russia’s war in Ukraine.
(jh)
Source: CNN