Held under the blazing sun on the outskirts of the Eternal City, the URC25 conference was marked by soaring hopes for reconstruction, tempered by the sobering realities of war and funding shortfalls.
Invitations were snapped up quickly, and several thousand attendees from dozens of countries— including heads of state and government, more than 100 ministers and deputy ministers, civil servants, business leaders, experts, journalists and NGO representatives—packed the venue.
The surge in attendance even overwhelmed organizers, who struggled to print enough badges.
Tough realities
But the robust turnout didn't signal that peace is any closer. Ceasefire talks remain fruitless, fighting rages on, and Russian airstrikes continue to destroy infrastructure across Ukraine.
The scale of damage and the needs for rebuilding shift daily.
At the same time, Ukraine’s immediate defence requirements are growing, and securing macro-financial support for 2026 has become urgent.
As a result, deeper conversations about the scale, sources and structure of long-term reconstruction financing were largely deferred.
A comprehensive "Marshall Plan" for Ukraine remains elusive, despite being a recurring theme since the first URC in Lugano in 2022, followed by conferences in London and Berlin.
Ukraine's total recovery needs at $1 trillion, PM says
On day one of this year’s conference, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal estimated Ukraine's total recovery needs at USD 1 trillion—USD 540 billion for reconstruction and USD 460 billion in external investment and other support.
Even a reduced figure would make Ukraine’s recovery one of the largest financial and modernization undertakings in Europe, on par with the EU’s EUR 750 billion Next Generation fund created to counter the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
While the projected support wouldn’t all be hard cash—some would come in the form of credit guarantees and risk insurance—it’s still an enormous ask at a time when many countries are heavily indebted and facing rising social and military expenditures.
Ukraine is unlikely to receive anything close to that without a firm decision from Europe and the G7 to confiscate and repurpose the roughly EUR 300 billion in frozen Russian assets. These could be used to fund financial instruments accessible to both Ukraine and Western businesses. But the West's appetite for such a move remains weak.
Further complicating matters are troubling signals from Ukraine itself. Just before last year’s URC, the head of Ukraine’s Reconstruction Agency, Mustafa Nayyem—a trusted figure among international donors—resigned, accusing the government of corruption.
This year, the credibility of Ukraine’s anti-corruption drive was again questioned after law enforcement raided the home of prominent activist Vitaliy Shabunin on dubious charges.
While not publicly addressed during the conference, the episode cast a shadow over Ukraine’s delegation.
Still, URC conferences are more than just forums on reconstruction—they also serve as a hub for bilateral talks, business matchmaking and panel discussions.
Several notable gains for Ukraine
Following two intensive days, Ukraine emerged with several notable gains.
One of these was the participation of US officials—for the first time—in a meeting of the so-called "coalition of the willing"—a group of countries interested in supporting a ceasefire deal with Russia.
The move signaled a shift in Washington’s policy, coinciding with renewed US military aid and growing public frustration from Donald Trump toward Russia.
Another win for Ukraine came as Germany and Norway committed to funding the purchase of three US-made Patriot missile systems to bolster Ukraine’s air defences.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen also announced a new EUR 2.3 billion aid package and plans for a "European Flagship Fund," co-developed with Poland, France, Germany and the European Investment Bank.
The fund will initially direct EUR 500 million into Ukraine’s industry, energy and transport sectors.
Nearly 200-strong Polish delegation in attendance
Poland made a strong showing at the conference. Prime Minister Donald Tusk led a delegation of nearly 200 officials, business leaders and experts, making it one of the largest national teams in attendance.
The Polish pavilion stood out—bustling with activity and ideas. The Polish Development Fund Group presented its "Team Poland" concept to help Polish businesses engage in Ukraine’s reconstruction.
The experience and lessons gathered in Rome may prove useful soon: Poland is expected to host next year's Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC26).
Tadeusz Iwański
The author is head of the Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova department at the Warsaw-based Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW). From 2006 to 2011, he worked at Polskie Radio dla Zagranicy, the Polish public broadcaster's international service.
Tadeusz Iwański