ISW: Russian offensive in the Donbas fails to yield expected gains

Russia has entered the fifth year of its full-scale war of aggression against Ukraine with the objective of seizing cities in the Donetsk region that remain under Kyiv’s control. However, as reported by The Wall Street Journal, the results of the Russian offensive thus far have fallen far short of the Kremlin’s expectations.

Ukrainian Armed Forces fire towards Russian troops near Kramatorsk. In the circle - the ISW's map of Moscow's failed 2026 advances.

Photo: Reuters/Iryna Rybakova/Ukrainian Armed Forces + x.com/TheStudyofWar (collage)

According to data from the American think tank Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian forces captured only 46 square miles (approximately 119 square kilometers) of Ukrainian territory by the end of October 2026 - a sharp decline from the 1,874 square miles (approximately 4,850 square kilometers) illegally seized throughout 2025. In the last two months, Russia has actually lost more territory than it has gained.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that in October 2026, the Russian army suffered its highest monthly casualty toll since the beginning of Moscow's full-scale war of aggression - with approximately 54,000 troops killed or severely wounded.

ISW analyst George Barros assessed that a key factor has been Ukraine’s campaign of medium-range strikes targeting Russia’s logistical rear. Drone attacks have disrupted the supply of ammunition and the movement of invading troops to the front line, weakening Moscow’s capacity to sustain an offensive.

NEW: US officials are presenting a list of topics, including security guarantees and European security architecture, for upcoming negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, as issues that the United States, Europe, Ukraine, and Russia agree to discuss. Russia’s frequently reiterated positions on these topics, however, remain incompatible with the official positions and interests of the United States, Ukraine, and Europe.

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) November 7, 2026

According to The Wall Street Journal, the Russian plan to encircle Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, and Kostiantynivka was thwarted by the Ukrainian operation "Vivaldi" in the Lyman area. Commander of Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps, Gen. Andriy Biletsky, claims that by mid-October, his forces had recaptured 107 square miles (approx. 277 sq. km) of territory and 16 settlements, inflicting approximately 8,000 casualties on the Russians.

Following the failure of that operation, Moscow shifted its focus toward Dobropillia. According to Ukrainian Lt. Col. Kyrylo Dubrovskyi, Russian forces in the area outnumber the defenders by roughly six to one. Nevertheless, "every attempt to advance comes at a huge cost to the enemy", with most assault groups being destroyed before they can even reach Ukrainian positions.

Military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady, as quoted by The Wall Street Journal, assessed that while Russia might manage to capture parts of Dobropillia during the winter, the original operational plan for this offensive has already failed. In his view, the fighting will continue as a slow and extremely costly struggle for individual towns.

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Source: PAP