"We must remember that the memorandum was merely a sort of memorandum of understanding that allowed time to supposedly resolve within 60 days what had not been resolved for several decades. So, in a way, it was bound to fall flat. You only had to read some paragraphs, such as the idea that all fronts would calm down, including in Lebanon. That clearly wasn’t the case. So that’s why we suspected that a particularly likely scenario was a resumption of hostilities.
Throughout the period set aside for negotiations, the parties involved repeatedly highlighted the bad faith of their counterparts. There was an escalation of verbal threats and a complete lack of compromise.
"I’m not optimistic in the short term. I think both sides have really remained entrenched in hardline positions. So, each side views any potential concessions as a total capitulation, whether it concerns the Strait of Hormuz, the nuclear issue, or the proxies (powers allied with Iran, such as the Lebanese Hezbollah or the Palestinian Hamas. Editor’s note). That is why I believe we should expect, first and foremost, a renewed period of purely military action, which will reshape the political balance of power in terms of negotiations.”
The warring parties have consistently emphasised that control of the Strait of Hormuz is in their hands. The most recent development was Donald Trump’s assertion that the strait would remain open and that the US would guarantee this militarily, whilst also levying a 20 per cent tax on cargo to help fund the operation. Beyond the rhetoric of the US President, the Strait of Hormuz is at the heart of the conflict.
"Donald Trump’s communication style is deliberately erratic. So I won’t dwell too much on analysing his words. There is, of course, a defiant stance that characterises him. But above all, this will have to be backed up by action. I think the Americans will do what they have to do because they are the only ones capable of doing so militarily. They will try to outmanoeuvre Iran by showing that, whilst Tehran claims the strait is closed, they can in fact reopen it. And the reverse logic obviously applies to Tehran as well.”
By blocking traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Iran hopes to retain a bargaining chip. Before the war, one-fifth of the world’s hydrocarbon trade passed through Hormuz. Not to mention the other goods that pass through there. Donald Trump claimed control of the strait, imposing a tax, and also ordered a blockade of Iranian ports, affecting both imports and exports.
"There is this two-pronged economic stranglehold. On the one hand, Donald Trump is preoccupied with the mid-term elections coming up in November, but I think he has already come to terms with the fact that he is going to lose them, as most US presidents do, for that matter. On the other hand, the stakes are much higher, as the entire Iranian economy could collapse in the short term."
Do you think the Americans are betting on that?
"I think that, given the deadlock in the negotiations, the Americans don’t really have much else left but this idea of hastening the collapse of the Iranian economy."
There are signs that the standoff between Iran and the US is far from over. Everything suggests that the Iranian economy is set to deteriorate further, on the one hand, and that petrol prices at the pump in the US are set to rise further, on the other, before any room for negotiation opens up. The outcome of these negotiations is of the utmost interest to consumers across the globe.
An article written by Pascal Bustamante (RTBF), initially published on 14 July 2026, 16:24 (CEST)