Its cause will once again be a so-called omega block, which will push warm air from North Africa over the European continent. The result will be the fourth heatwave of the season, during which a heat dome will settle over both the Mediterranean and Central Europe.
The heat will begin spreading from Africa in the final week of July, meaning France and the Iberian Peninsula will once again be the first areas hit hardest. Around the turn of the month, temperatures there are expected to exceed 40 degrees Celsius and locally even 45 degrees. Historic records are likely to be broken in many places. The high-pressure system will then begin moving east, bringing temperatures in the 40s to the area stretching from Germany to the Balkans.
Developments this week are already fairly predictable, but it is much less clear how temperatures will evolve next week, with the models still differing considerably. For now, it appears that, at least in the first half of the week, the heat dome will not yet break down. On the contrary, another wave of dry, hot air from the south could reach Europe early next week.
In the coming days, meteorologists will refine their models based on current weather data from European measuring stations and satellite systems.
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The key problem is the formation of the aforementioned heat dome over the continent. In this phenomenon, an area of high pressure settles over a large region for an extended period and acts like a lid, trapping and compressing warm air beneath it. This compressed air then heats up further — much like in a closed pot. It prevents cooler air or storm fronts from entering the area, causing the heat and drought to intensify until they are disrupted by a sufficiently strong weather system.
The result is extremely high temperatures that can last for days or even weeks, because the pressure system barely moves and keeps the hot air in place.
Heat domes typically form in summer, when a strong ridge of high pressure develops in the atmosphere, often in connection with unusual patterns in the jet stream, which in such situations becomes wavy and slows into the omega-shaped pattern described above. According to scientists, this phenomenon is linked to climate change, as warmer oceans and a warmer atmosphere increase the likelihood and intensity of such extreme heat events.
Although Europe has become accustomed to heatwaves in recent years, the current situation is exceptional because the heat is arriving after several previous very strong waves, during which moisture in the landscape did not have time to recover. France and Spain are struggling with wildfires, which the heat and drought will further worsen. The same threat will also spread to Central Europe, where relative humidity continues to fall.
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The impacts will inevitably also be felt in human health, given the high daytime temperatures and the fact that, in most places, the mercury will not fall below 20 degrees Celsius even at night — and in some areas not even below 25 degrees. What makes this heatwave particularly unpleasant is that it may last for quite a long time, certainly at least through the first week of August.
“Very high temperatures are likely to persist until 4–8 August, after which they should return to the usual values for the 1991–2020 period,” said scientists from the Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences — CzechGlobe.
Forecasts change slightly every day depending on the model. The latest model from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts currently shows Friday, 7 August, as the last day with temperatures above 30 degrees Celsius, with temperatures possibly falling to around 30 degrees over the weekend. The GFS model, by contrast, still keeps the weekend hot for now, but predicts a cooling to around 30 degrees from Tuesday and, by Friday, currently forecasts a drop below tropical-temperature levels across all of Czechia.
During the heatwave, the extent of soil drought is expected to reach its largest level so far this year. In a week’s time, around 30 percent of the country is expected to be affected by extreme drought, while roughly another 50 percent of the territory will fall into the next two most severe drought categories. “When looking at the surface layer of the soil, it is now clear that it does occasionally rain somewhere. But shallow-rooted, thirsty vegetation does not allow any of that moisture to penetrate deeper. In the deeper layer, relative saturation below 10 percent is present across roughly half of our territory. This is a truly exceptional situation, and trees are suffering the most,” the Intersucho portal adds.
An article written by Tomáš Karlík (CT), initially published on 29 July 2026, 10:33 (CEST)