For more than a decade, Hungarian politics had only one centre of gravity, Viktor Orbán. But since Sunday that axis has begun to shift. Péter Magyar, the candidate who emerged only a year ago as an anomaly within the system, has managed what for a long time seemed improbable: to turn the accumulated wear and tear of power into a viable and ultimately winning electoral alternative. According to provisional results released on election night, his party has won with around 52% of the vote and an absolute majority in parliament, clearly outstripping Fidesz, which is below 40%.
Beyond the figure, the relevant fact is another: for the first time in more than a decade, Orbán's party has lost control of the National Assembly. The result, moreover, breaks with the dynamic of reinforced majorities that had characterised the Hungarian system in recent electoral cycles.
The scandal, his chance
Magyar was no stranger to power, but he became much more uncomfortable for the system led for 16 years by the hitherto prime minister: he knew it from the inside and always aspired to rewrite its rules.
Born in Budapest in 1981, a lawyer by training, the until recently candidate spent much of his career in institutions and companies linked to the state during the long period of Viktor Orbán's government. For years, his name was hardly known outside administrative and political circles, but this invisibility was, in a way, his main asset: he knew the inner workings of the system without being exposed to its wear and tear.
The turning point came in 2024, in the midst of a political crisis triggered by a controversial pardon case that shook the ruling elite. It was then that Magyar publicly broke with the power circle to which he had belonged. In interviews and public appearances he denounced practices of favouritism and clientelistic networks that, according to him, distorted the functioning of the state. His message was not that of an ideological opponent, but that of an insider who claimed to have seen the darkest levers of power and its mechanisms from the inside.
This narrative resonated with a significant part of the electorate. Within a few months, Magyar took the lead of the Tisza party, a hitherto marginal party, and transformed it into the main opposition party. His rise was particularly visible in the 2024 European elections, where his candidacy achieved a result that, according to analysts at the time, broke Fidesz's almost unchallenged hegemony in the conservative camp for the first time.
But like any electoral process, the Magyar phenomenon cannot be understood without context. After more than a decade of concentrated power, the political model built by Orbán was showing signs of wear and tear: irregular growth, inflationary pressure and a persistent perception of corruption, recurrently highlighted in international reports and coverage. This was compounded by growing social fatigue after years of power centralisation and political polarisation.
A friendlier approach to the EU
In addition, Hungary's increasingly awkward position within the EU, with frozen funds due to rule of law concerns and ongoing tensions with Brussels, has been a determining factor. Moreover, "much of Orbán's Hungary's actions have made recent EU efforts to help Ukraine very difficult", explains Alexander Bor, postdoctoral researcher at the Democracy Institute of the Central European University (CEU) in a recent interview with RTVE.
"Orbán has done nothing more than put sticks in Brussels' wheels," says Héctor Sánchez Margalef, senior researcher at the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs (CIDOB), "Both he and Magyar are two right-wing conservatives. For example, on the issue of migration, their positions are the same. On the issue of Ukraine, neither of them advocated ever deploying troops on Ukrainian territory, but what Magyar can change is the tone and the forms in everything that has to do with the EU", Sánchez adds.
"Another relevant issue is accession," he continues. "Unlike Orbán, Magyar does not oppose Ukraine's accession to the EU27, but he does make its entry conditional on the accession process being based strictly on merit and the holding of a popular referendum in his country, which could actually hinder its entry because of Hungary's less pro-European position. (...) It should not be forgotten that this country belongs to the group of states that joined the EU in 2004 and is part of the Soviet legacy. In other words, these countries feel that they have been independent, exercising their sovereignty, for fewer years than Western Europe. As a result, they are more reluctant to cede part of it to supranational institutions.
Thus, Magyar was able to see the constant friction with Europe not as a problem, but as an opportunity. His discourse combines elements that, a priori, might seem contradictory: he maintains conservative positions on social issues - in line with a large part of the Hungarian electorate - but is committed to normalising relations with Brussels and recovering the country's international credibility.
In his speeches he has recurrently insisted on the need to "rebuild" the institutions without provoking an abrupt rupture. And it is in this balance that his message has managed to attract voters from very different ideological backgrounds, from former Fidesz supporters to urban sectors traditionally opposed to him.
On the other hand, his political strategy has avoided traditional channels where the government maintains a strong influence. Instead of relying on the mainstream media, he has opted for events in medium and small cities and direct communication through digital platforms. This approach has allowed him to partly circumvent the media imbalance and build a direct connection with disenchanted voters.
Personalistic leadership
His profile also raises questions. For some local analysts, his leadership is still incipient and highly personalistic, sustained more by his figure than by a consolidated party structure. For others, his past within the system is a double-edged sword: it gives him credibility when he denounces its failures, but also raises doubts about the extent to which he represents a real rupture.
This organisational fragility contrasts with the solidity of the state apparatus built up by Fidesz over the years. The question is not only whether Magyar can win, but whether it has the team, structure and time to transform an electoral victory into a stable power alternative.
In programmatic terms, Magyar has focused on anti-corruption measures, health and education reforms and, above all, on reactivating relations with the European Union to unlock key funding. He has also distanced himself from Orbán's foreign policy, especially with regard to Russia, advocating a clearer alignment with Western partners in a context of growing geopolitical tension.
In this sense, his proposal is not so much a rupture as a rebalancing: maintaining a conservative agenda in domestic politics, but reducing the systematic confrontation with Brussels that has characterised recent years. For part of the electorate, rather than an ideological shift, what Magyar offers is a way out of the country's progressive isolation within the EU bloc.
A change, but not a rupture
Thus, his rise ultimately responds to a broader dynamic than his own figure: Hungary could be entering a phase of real political competition after years of almost absolute dominance by a single party. In this scenario, Magyar is not just a candidate, he is the expression of a part of the electorate that seeks change without assuming a total break with the recent past.
His victory confirmed, the challenge will be immediate and complex. It will not just be a matter of governing, but of operating within - and, above all, reforming - an institutional system deeply shaped for more than a decade by his predecessor. The question is not how he can win, but whether he can truly transform the country without destabilising it.
For the challenge is not only political, but institutional. In recent years, the Hungarian system has undergone far-reaching reforms - from constitutional changes to redesigns of the electoral system - that have consolidated a model that is difficult to reverse without broad majorities. Governing in this context also means negotiating with structures designed to last beyond a change of government.
In the end, the paradox that defines Péter Magyar will remain in force even when he is in power: the man who promises to change Hungary is also a product of the same system that has sustained it for 16 years. It is in this balance between continuity and rupture that his figure - and, to a large extent, the country's immediate future - is defined.
Source: A European Perspetive, RTVE
Originally published by Ana Garralda on 13 April 2026 08:37 GMT+2