The report on Poland's COVID response has been published in the journal Risk Analysis and has also been discussed in wyborcza.pl.
The report's conclusions include the following:
Poland's initial response to the first phase of COVID was excellent
In the first phase of COVID, the Polish government lockdown (March 2020) was strict and Polish society "voluntarily" followed safety measures. As a result, the report notes that the number of deaths in Poland in the first phase of COVID were considerably less than the EU average.
From autumn 2020 on Poland's number of deaths significantly exceeded the EU average
Mixed messages from Polish authorities were one of the main reasons for the increase in Polish mortality rates in the later phases of COVID. Presidential elections were held in 2020, and while incumbent Andrzej Duda gave his support to vaccinations, he emphasized a citizen's freedom to choose.
Poland has some of the worst figures in the EU for "excessive deaths" - deaths over and above the average number of deaths for that period of time. Altogether over 200 000 for the COVID period (so far).
The Minister for Health for the COVID period, Adam Niedzielski did not accept responsibility for these poor figures, blaming Polish society for not taking more precautions. However, Niedzielski consistently respected scientific opinion on COVID, while several colleagues from Law and Justice were vaccine sceptics.
As a result of these and other factors Poland had a very low rate of vaccination compared to other EU countries. The report notes that from 2021 on, the majority of deaths from COVID were of unvaccinated people.
"Super-spreader events" and ongoing politics
In the years 2020-2021 were continued large scale protests against (increasing) abortion restrictions in Poland, called "Black Marches". Like football matches in Italy, these may have contributed to the spread of COVID.
Wyborcza.pl, a left-leaning outlet, blamed the risks from marches on the government for introducing controversial laws at that time.
The report concludes:
"We demonstrate that both the numbers of COVID-related deaths and all-cause deaths in Poland were much higher than the EU average for most months in the study period. [...] Better and more widespread understanding of risk perception of the pandemic and the COVID-19 vaccines would have improved managing vaccine hesitancy, potentially leading to more effective pro-vaccination measures."
Sources: Risk Analysis, wyborcza.pl, prezydent.pl, mp.pl
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