Meteorologists at the state-run Institute of Meteorology and Water Management (IMGW) said the 2025-2026 winter may “surprise all of Poland,” with the overlap of La Niña conditions in the Pacific and a potential breakdown of the polar vortex creating a pattern not seen for years.
La Niña, a phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean that changes weather patterns around the world, in this case points to a noticeably colder winter in Poland with a higher probability of freezes and snowfall, the institute said.
At the same time, the polar vortex that normally keeps a mass of cold Arctic air locked over the north may weaken or even break apart. If that happens, “a snowy winter rich in numerous temperature drops” could spread over Europe, the forecast said.
“The upcoming winter looks interesting. It is all due to La Niña in the Pacific and a possible breakdown of the polar vortex,” Agnieszka Prasek of IMGW said. The institute’s new forecast sees a greater chance of colder conditions in December and January.
Weather models suggest a sudden stratospheric warming event could occur at the end of November, which may weaken the polar vortex and increase the likelihood of cold air outbreaks in early winter, IMGW said.
“Snow forecasts look promising, especially in the south, center and east of the country. If temperatures are low enough, a lasting snow cover may form there,” Prasek said.
Pressure patterns over Europe are also expected to favor cold air arriving in Poland, with high-pressure systems to the north and low-pressure systems to the south steering frigid Arctic air masses from the east and northeast.
In January, the snowy and frosty pattern is expected to persist. By February, the polar vortex may rebuild, bringing milder winter weather, forecasters said.
Despite the cold signals from La Niña and the potential vortex disruption, seasonal models still project a winter that is warmer than the long-term average — contrary to what the pattern analysis alone might suggest.
If La Niña and a polar vortex breakdown coincide and reinforce each other, Poland could experience a winter not seen for years, at least through the end of January, IMGW said.
(jh)
Source: PAP