Jarosław Ćwiek-Karpowicz, director of the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), a Warsaw-based think tank, said the truce should be seen as a positive step, but warned that it does not end the conflict or create real prospects for a durable settlement.
The ceasefire was agreed overnight from Tuesday into Wednesday, shortly before an ultimatum set by US President Donald Trump was due to expire.
The arrangement, brokered through Pakistan, includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for global oil shipments.
Ćwiek-Karpowicz said the US and Israeli military operation had achieved part of its immediate aims by weakening Iran’s capabilities, including its ballistic missile program and its support for allied groups in the region.
But he said the effect was likely to be temporary and argued that Iran could rebuild much of that military capacity within a few years.
He added that the operation was not capable of eliminating Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium.
“I do not see room for peace here,” he said, arguing that Washington had paused a military operation rather than ended a formally declared war. He said Iran would likely try to observe the ceasefire for now, but could still attack the interests of US allies if it saw an opportunity.
He said the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz was politically crucial because any renewed disruption there could threaten oil supplies and give Tehran leverage over the West and the United States.
Asked which country had gained the most from the conflict, Ćwiek-Karpowicz said Israel appeared to be the main short-term winner because the fighting had pushed back the Iranian threat for several years and weakened Tehran’s regional reach.
In the longer term, he said, Saudi Arabia could emerge in the strongest position, having stayed out of direct involvement while preserving room to maneuver and maintaining strong ties with Washington.
(rt/gs)
Source: PAP