The comments come after PiS leader Jarosław Kaczyński said formal decisions on excluding Morawiecki's allies from the party would be taken next Tuesday.
More than 30 PiS lawmakers have refused to leave an association founded by the former PM, which led to the split.
Morawiecki has said his group currently includes 40 MPs, one senator and three MEPs.
If around 30 MPs leave PiS, the party’s parliamentary group would shrink to 156 members, although the final number is still unclear.
Chwedoruk told the Polish news agency PAP that Kaczyński’s decision to wait until Tuesday could give some lawmakers time to reconsider and remain with PiS.
The final scale of the split could be important for Poland’s political landscape, he said.
The analyst argued that while a breakaway group would weaken PiS, Kaczyński’s party still has the strongest political organisation on the right.
Morawiecki, meanwhile, faces the challenge of building a new movement, even if his group reaches the level of support suggested by some polls, Chwedoruk said.
The politician "is taking a giant risk, trying to reach voters who supported PiS but did not fully identify with it."
According to Chwedoruk, Morawiecki's main challenge was convincing voters that he represented something different from Law and Justice, after serving as the party’s prime minister for years.
He said it would be difficult to build a political movement around personalities alone, without clear policy differences.
Another political scientist, Maciej Onasz from the University of Łódź, told PAP that both the governing coalition and the right-wing Confederation could benefit from the PiS split.
In his view, the two camps risked damaging themselves if they focused on fighting each other, rather than presenting a clear offer to voters.
According to Onasz, Morawiecki’s best chance would be to offer a clear alternative rather than simply oppose Kaczyński’s PiS.
He added that some voters from Law and Justice, Confederation and the centre could potentially become interested in a new political option.
(ał)
Source: PAP