The study by the European Analytical Collective and Res Futura says his campaign broke with traditional Polish election tactics and instead mobilized voters through identity-driven messaging, emotional appeals and algorithm-optimized content.
By contrast, centrist candidate Rafał Trzaskowski’s campaign failed to penetrate Nawrocki’s voter base due to mismatched tone, distribution channels and lack of emotional resonance, the report finds.
It outlines how Nawrocki’s campaign created an “us versus them” narrative that did not seek to persuade undecided voters with arguments, but rather to emotionally mobilize a defined support base.
It focused on attacks against vague or symbolic targets such as "the system," Brussels, liberal media, and the post-communist political elite.
Flags, faith, family
The language and imagery—emphasizing flags, faith, family and Poland’s national currency—were designed to cultivate group identity rather than engage in policy debate.
According to the authors, three layers of campaign content played key roles: identity, morality, and epistemics.
The identity layer framed Poles as traditional, sovereign and family-oriented, contrasting them with “elites,” LGBT communities, EU institutions and metropolitan liberals.
TikTok and other short-form video platforms were used to amplify moral dichotomies – what the report calls the division of content into "good," "normal," and "Polish," creating viral moments through outrage, sentimentality or humor.
The third layer, described as "epistemic," sought to discredit mainstream information sources, including public media, state agencies and liberal outlets.
Slogans such as "see what really happened" and "Trzaskowski’s lies exposed" were designed to erode trust in outside narratives and bolster parallel ecosystems such as the popular YouTube channel Kanał Zero.
The aim, according to the report, was to bypass analytical thinking and transform politics into a symbolic battle between good and evil.
Distinct emotional profiles among Nawrocki’s followers were also identified: the "identity voter," who is attached to patriotic and religious symbols; the "resentful voter," suspicious of elites and convinced the system is rigged; the "mobilized voter," often a younger TikTok or Instagram user driven by emotional and conflict-laden content; and the "conservative voter," focused on family, pensions and stability.
Capacity to manipulate identity
The study paints a picture of a deeply polarized electorate, where the mechanics of political persuasion are increasingly shaped not by reasoned debate, but by social media's capacity to manipulate identity, distrust and emotion.
Nawrocki, backed by the conservative opposition Law and Justice (PiS) party, won Sunday’s vote with 50.89 percent, defeating Trzaskowski, who garnered 49.11 percent, according to official data from the National Electoral Commission.
Nawrocki is expected be sworn into office on August 6 for a five-year term, succeeding conservative President Andrzej Duda.
Andrzej Duda and Karol Nawrocki meet at the presidential palace in Warsaw on Tuesday, June 3, 2025. Photo: Marek Borawski/KPRP
(rt/gs)
Source: PAP