English Section

Prisoners for potash: Lukashenko's new trade practice [COMMENTARY]

17.12.2025 18:00
At the end of last week, Belarusian strongman leader Aleksander Lukashenko announced the release of 123 prisoners, after the United States agreed to lift sanctions on the country's potash exports.
Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko.
Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko.Photo: Wikimedia Commons/Kremlin.ru/CC BY 4.0

"I have pardoned 123 people convicted of espionage, terrorism and extremism," Lukashenko said. "This decision was taken in the interest of the country’s stability."

"We cannot ignore appeals for humanism and compassion, especially in such difficult times," he added.

Moments later, that display of "humanism" took a familiar turn. Those freed were swiftly deported from Belarus, many without being returned their passports.

Lukashenko, who has ruled the country uninterrupted for 31 years, did not explain whose "difficult times" he was referring to. The timing, however, has become increasingly clear.

Recent mass releases of political prisoners in Belarus have repeatedly coincided with visits to Minsk by special envoys from the administration of US President Donald Trump—and each visit has been followed by some easing of US sanctions.

Earlier this year, Washington lifted restrictions on Belarus' state airline Belavia.

This time, the stakes were far higher. The United States has a strategic interest in resuming imports of Belarusian potash fertilizers, a sector still under sanctions and potentially worth billions of dollars in export revenue to Minsk.

For that, Lukashenko was prepared to release roughly 10 percent of the more than 1,000 political prisoners held in Belarusian jails. Freedom, it appeared, came at a price—measured in tons of potash.

State media, as expected, presented a different narrative. Belarusian state television broadcaster described the move as an effort to improve the country's image and offer former prisoners a chance at "reintegration into society."

Reintegration, however, proved short-lived: most of those released were promptly expelled to Ukraine.

State news agency Belta reported that "well-known opposition figures" were among those freed, a sign, it said, of the government's "readiness for dialogue."

Lukashenko himself struck a conciliatory note, declaring that "everyone deserves a second chance."

The most extraordinary claim came from Lukashenko’s press secretary, Natalya Eismont.

Speaking to Russia’s state-run TASS news agency on the day of the release, she said the United States had taken nine foreign nationals with it and that more than 100 people were sent to Ukraine in exchange for Belarusians captured there.

Families, she said, had appealed to Lukashenko "for help for them and for wounded Russians."

Ukraine rejected that account within an hour. The "I Want to Live" project, run by Ukraine’s military intelligence and responsible for handling prisoner-of-war issues, said no such exchange had taken place.

"This is not an exchange of Russian or Belarusian prisoners of war," the agency said, adding that Russia has failed to implement agreements on the return of wounded and sick POWs and has shown little interest in recovering foreign fighters who fought on its behalf.

On Tuesday, Belta said that the release of those convicted of "extremism," among them Belarusian Nobel Peace Prize laureate Ales Bialiatski, would help rebuild trust in the government.

That may be an optimistic reading of events.

Roughly 90 percent of Belarus' political prisoners remain behind bars—and there are still plenty of US sanctions left to be lifted.

Andrzej Ppczobut od 2021 roku jest w kolonii karnej Andrzej Poczobut, a Polish-Belarusian journalist, has been imprisoned in Belarus since 2021. He has been serving an eight-year prison sentence imposed by the Lukashenko regime. Photo: Artur Reszko/PAP

The terms of trade have become clear, suggesting that more prisoners could be released in the near future in exchange for further concessions to the regime.

Jan Krzysztof Michalak in Belarus