Radev, a pro-Russian former Bulgarian president, won a commanding victory in Sunday's snap parliamentary elections, with results pointing to the first single-party majority in the country since 1997.
Radev’s strong election showing is unlikely to produce a radical foreign policy shift in Sofia, though it could bring a more skeptical tone toward some European Union policies, analyst Jan Nowinowski said.
Near-final results released by Bulgaria’s Central Election Commission on Monday showed Radev’s Progressive Bulgaria coalition with 44.7 percent of the vote.
Former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov’s GERB, Citizens for European Development of Bulgaria, took 13.4 percent, while the pro-Western We Continue the Change–Democratic Bulgaria coalition won 12.8 percent.
DPS-New Beginning, led by businessman Delyan Peevski, received 6.8 percent, and the nationalist Revival party took 4.3 percent.
Nowinowski of Warsaw’s Centre for Eastern Studies said the result reflects public demand for domestic repair more than a call for a major geopolitical turn.
He said the new authorities will face high expectations, especially on cleaning up the justice system and passing anti-corruption laws.
He added that Radev appears set to enjoy broad political room for maneuver. At the same time, some of the most important democratic reforms may still require cooperation with pro-European forces in parliament.
On foreign policy, Nowinowski said a Radev-led government would probably take a moderately Eurosceptic line.
Radev has previously criticized the EU’s energy and climate policies, argued that sanctions on Russia do not work, and opposed military aid for Ukraine.
Even so, the analyst said Bulgaria is unlikely to move into open conflict with Brussels.
"Radev will not want to take such a collision course with the main European actors as Viktor Orbán did,” Nowinowski said.
He added that the Bulgarian leader remains more pragmatic than openly anti-Western, and still sees the country’s future inside the EU and NATO.
That could mean a balancing strategy.
According to Nowinowski, Radev is unlikely to try to derail EU support mechanisms for Ukraine directly, but may push for renewed dialogue with Moscow and a return to Russian energy imports, especially oil.
He may also seek stronger trade ties with China, whose presence in Bulgaria remains limited.
Nowinowski said comparisons with Orbán should be made carefully.
In his view, Radev may have more in common politically with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico or former Czech Prime Minister Andrej Babiš than with Hungary’s long-time former leader.
The turnout, above 48 percent, appears to reflect public exhaustion with years of instability. Sunday’s vote was Bulgaria’s eighth parliamentary election since April 2021.
Nowinowski said frustration reached a peak late last year, when protests against the government of Rosen Zhelyazkov turned into a broader revolt against corruption and the capture of public institutions.
Radev, he said, benefited from that mood. As president, he enjoyed the highest trust ratings among Bulgarian politicians and was widely seen as standing outside the party deals and scandals that damaged other forces.
Preliminary results suggest he drew support across all age groups.
Nowinowski said the scale of the victory could finally end five years of political paralysis in the country.
If Progressive Bulgaria secures a working majority on its own, he said, the next government will have a far better chance of lasting a full four-year term than the short-lived administrations that came before it.
Rumen Radev speaking to reporters in Sofia on Sunday after exit polls pointed to a landslide victory for his Progressive Bulgaria party. Photo: REUTERS/Spasiyana Sergieva (cropped)
(rt/gs)
Source: PAP