Iran is unlikely to accept demands for the “total elimination” of its nuclear program and will instead negotiate limits on enrichment, Marcin Andrzej Piotrowski of the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM) told the Polish Press Agency.
On Wednesday, a new Iranian law suspended automatic access for International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors; any future visits now need clearance from Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. Piotrowski called the move “political theatre” aimed at Washington and predicted inspections would resume “within weeks, certainly before September’s UN General Assembly”.
The analyst said Israel-backed US calls for complete dismantlement go “too far” and are “off the table”. Tehran’s counter-proposal is a multinational consortium that would keep enrichment sites running while inviting IAEA, US and Gulf Arab observers, he added.
Pentagon estimates that US air-strikes on 21–22 June set back Iran’s program by one to two years are “overly optimistic”, Piotrowski argued, noting uncertainty over damage assessments and whether Iranian engineers have re-entered hit facilities.
A more urgent question, he said, is the fate of over 400 kg of highly enriched uranium – enough for eight to nine warheads – stored in gas cylinders resembling scuba tanks.
“Tracking those containers is now the key task for US, Israeli and IAEA intelligence,” he said.
Piotrowski warned that pre-emptive strikes could “paradoxically push Iran to finish the bomb” while still leaving room for diplomacy as domestic pressures weaken Tehran’s leadership.
Israel launched raids on Iranian nuclear and military targets on 13 June, arguing Tehran was close to a weapon. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi later admitted the sites were “seriously damaged”, but IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said they were not destroyed and could restart enrichment within months.
After the American strikes, US President Donald Trump claimed that Iran’s “key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated”.
(jh)
Source: PAP