The estimates were published by the Violence and Impacts Early-Warning System (VIEWS), developed by the Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO) and Uppsala University.
The model uses machine-learning algorithms to forecast levels of violence up to three years in advance.
According to the projections, an estimated 28,300 people will be killed in Ukraine in 2026, while 7,700 deaths are forecast in Israel and the Palestinian territories, and 4,300 in Sudan.
Despite the high toll, the model predicts fewer deaths in Ukraine and the Gaza conflict than in 2025. PRIO cited data from the Uppsala Conflict Data Program showing 59,600 conflict-related deaths in Ukraine and 14,000 in Israel and the Palestinian territories this year.
Sudan also shows a projected decline from 7,200 deaths in 2025. However, researchers raised alarm after the VIEWS model doubled its estimates for Sudan over the past month. “The situation could deteriorate significantly in the coming months,” said PRIO research director Haavard Hegre.
Additional projected death tolls for 2026 include Pakistan with 2,000, Nigeria with 1,900, Ethiopia with 1,800, Somalia with 1,700, Syria with 1,400, Yemen with 1,300, and Burkina Faso with 1,200.
Hegre described the findings as a warning signal for governments, the United Nations, and humanitarian organizations on where attention and resources are urgently needed.
(jh)
Source: Polskie Radio 24