Reza Pahlavi, 65, has portrayed the unrest as a turning point for the Islamic Republic, Iran’s clerical-led system established after the 1979 revolution.
In a recent opinion piece in The Washington Post, he wrote that the Islamic Republic has “exhausted its legitimacy” and that Iran is “ready for a democratic transformation.”
In an interview with CBS News, he said a revolution is underway “in the true sense of the word.”
Some US media outlets have described Pahlavi as an emerging leader that Iranians may be willing to listen to.
Witold Repetowicz, a journalist, documentary maker and Middle East analyst, said those claims overstate his influence and do not match the dynamics of the protests inside Iran.
“He is not an authority shaping the dynamics of events in Iran,” Repetowicz said, arguing that Pahlavi is not seen by protesters as a unifying figure.
Ilan Berman, vice president of the American Foreign Policy Council in Washington, offered a more cautious assessment that still points to rising interest in Pahlavi’s message.
Pahlavi is “trying to seize the opportunity,” Berman said, adding that his public statements are prompting reactions among more Iranians inside the country than during the 2022 protests.
Berman said more Iranians than ever before appear to want Pahlavi back, though he stressed that it remains unclear whether that signals support for restoring the monarchy.
He also said a key question in Washington is whether Pahlavi is prepared to return to Iran in person. “Even if he decides to do so, that does not mean Iranians would be ready to accept him,” Berman said.
Pahlavi has previously indicated he does not seek to rule, presenting himself instead as a potential adviser to opposition forces. Berman said that stance could change if Pahlavi concludes there is a clear expectation from Iranians.
Pahlavi left Iran at 17 to train in the United States as a fighter pilot, and the 1979 revolution found him abroad. He later earned a political science degree from the University of South Carolina and has lived for years in Maryland. He is married and has three daughters.
During the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, he volunteered to fight for Iran, but Iranian authorities did not allow it, Berman noted.
Repetowicz said the image of a consolidated opposition is “an overinterpretation,” arguing that Pahlavi has not made a serious effort to coordinate with other opposition groups.
He said Pahlavi is divisive even among Iranians abroad and “pretends that in the opposition it is him and no one else.”
Repetowicz said the broader opposition landscape includes rivalry between monarchists aligned with Pahlavi and supporters of Maryam Rajavi, a dissident linked to the People’s Mujahedin of Iran, a group also known by the acronym MEK.
Repetowicz described the Rajavi camp as an “Islamic-communist” movement rather than a pro-democracy alternative.
Pahlavi describes himself as an advocate of a secular, democratic Iran, but Repetowicz said many monarchists around him, despite that rhetoric, want to restore a system resembling Iran under the Pahlavi dynasty.
Repetowicz said that era is associated for many Iranians with repression, including torture, and he argued that a return to the pre-1979 order is not a popular aspiration.
'Recipe for civil war or dictatorship'
Repetowicz also warned that even if the current leadership fell, the political vacuum could lead to instability. He said the situation resembles “a recipe for civil war or dictatorship,” adding that separatist currents within the diaspora, including Kurdish groups, have become more active.
Some US commentators have argued Pahlavi could still play a role in a post-Islamic Republic transition.
Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute has said “dictatorship is not hereditary,” suggesting Pahlavi does not have to repeat the failures of his father. Rubin has argued that Iranians may associate the shah’s era with harsh policing and excess, but also with rapid economic development.
Repetowicz rejected the idea that Pahlavi could credibly run in future elections, saying he lacks qualifications and broad acceptance.
“Apart from being a prince, he has not worked a single day in his life,” Repetowicz said, adding that many Iranians resent what he described as wealth taken out of Iran before the revolution.
US media have reported that much of the family’s property was confiscated after 1979, while speculation persists that assets were moved abroad. Pahlavi has said he lives on donations from supporters and has no occupation beyond working for what he calls Iran’s liberation.
The debate over Pahlavi’s role is unfolding against a rapidly escalating crisis inside Iran.
Wednesday marked the 18th day of mass demonstrations across all 31 provinces, driven by economic grievances and opposition to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has ruled since 1989, after the death of Ruhollah Khomeini, the leader of the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Reports describe a harsh security response, including the use of live ammunition. The Norway-based nongovernmental organization Iran Human Rights said at least 648 people have been killed so far, while some reports have put the death toll as high as 6,000.
(rt/gs)
Source: PAP