China's share shrank slightly in 2022 and is projected to decrease more significantly to 17 percent in 2023, marking the largest drop since the 1960s, Ruchir Sharma, head of Rockefeller International, wrote in an article for the Financial Times.
After decades of rapid expansion following economic liberalization in the 1980s, China's economic growth has stalled, a stark contrast to its nearly tenfold increase from less than 2 percent in 1990 to 18.4 percent in 2021. Sharma notes that no nation had advanced as rapidly as China had.
However, this recent reversal suggests a changing global economic order. Sharma attributes China's diminishing share mainly to the rise of other economies, particularly the United States and emerging countries like India, Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil, and Poland, noting that these nations are now primarily driving global economic growth.
Moreover, demographic factors and declining worker productivity are exacerbating China's economic challenges. Sharma also highlights a significant withdrawal of foreign investment from China and an increase in overseas investments by Chinese investors.
This shift, Sharma argues, indicates a possible realignment of global economic power and suggests that the world may be entering a post-China era in terms of economic dominance.
(jh)
Source: PAP, Financial Times