Bloomberg said the ballot could be a “barometer” of whether Poland’s “democratic backsliding” can be reversed, after nearly a decade of right-wing populist Law and Justice (PiS) dominance that strained relations with Brussels over the rule of law.
Voters must decide “whether the country can restore the rule of law and remain a reliable partner in the European Union,” the agency wrote.
What is at stake
- Power balance: A victory for PiS-backed conservative Karol Nawrocki would weaken Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s pro-EU coalition, prolong legislative gridlock and keep the presidency—PiS’s last foothold in executive power—out of centrist hands.
- EU security: Poland is NATO’s key corridor for Western arms to Ukraine and host to more than two million Ukrainian refugees; a nationalist win could complicate that role.
- European signal: Analysts told Bloomberg the outcome will signal whether populist parties can rebound after PiS lost its parliamentary majority in 2023.
Centrist Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski leads opinion polls at around 32 %, with Nawrocki in the mid-20s and far-right libertarian Sławomir Mentzen near 18 %. A runoff is expected on 1 June if no one tops 50 %.
The agency said a Nawrocki win could embolden populist forces ahead of 2027 parliamentary polls, while a Trzaskowski presidency would likely see Poland “seek a bigger role in EU affairs,” as shown by Tusk’s high-profile visit to Kyiv with French, German and British leaders earlier this month.
Polling stations open at 07:00 (05:00 GMT) on Sunday and close at 21:00. Final pre-election surveys must stop Friday midnight, when a nationwide election silence period begins.
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Source: PAP, Bloomberg