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Poland not facing desertification yet, hydrologist says, as Vistula hits record low

26.08.2025 15:00
A Polish hydrologist said desertification is not imminent but warned of severe drought and record-low rivers, urging an immediate halt to regulation and deepening after the Vistula in Warsaw fell to a historic 9 cm on Monday.
Low levels of the Vistula in Kazimierz Dolny.
Low levels of the Vistula in Kazimierz Dolny.Photo: PAP/Wojtek Jargiło

The Vistula’s gauge at the Warszawa-Bulwary station dropped to its lowest reading on record, said Piotr Bednarek, a hydrologist and doctoral researcher at Jagiellonian University and head of the Wolne Rzeki (“free rivers”) foundation.

He blamed rapidly advancing vertical erosion caused by river regulation and sand mining that traps sediment upstream of Warsaw and leaves the capital’s regulated reach deepening over time.

Siekierki, the combined heat-and-power plant that heats 55% of Warsaw’s buildings, has in recent years struggled to draw cooling water from the Vistula. Gazeta Wyborcza daily reported in January 2025 that the original intake canal held water for only 10 days in 2024.

The plant’s difficulties “largely stem from sand mines lowering the riverbed,” Bednarek said, calling the mines harmful to both the river’s ecosystem and riverside infrastructure. City proceedings are under way to decide whether the mines receive environmental permits to continue operating.

Drought driven by the timing and pattern of rainfall—heavy, brief summer downpours rather than winter precipitation—has worsened conditions, Bednarek said, with much of the water quickly consumed by vegetation and evaporation.

Beyond the Vistula, water levels are below seasonal minimums at 14 hydrological stations on rivers including the Warta, Kaczawa, Moszczenica, Budzówka, Żylica, Nysa Kłodzka, Kwisa, Pilica, Prądnik, Skawica and Krasna. Many sites marked “black” as low-water zones are within 1–2 cm of all-time lows, and some rivers dried up entirely earlier this year, he added, noting conditions are still better than in early July after a month of intense rains briefly improved flows.

Bednarek said desertification is not on the horizon, though low river stages can wipe out ecosystems—fish, mussels and some amphibians. Groundwater remains depleted and would require substantial winter snowfall to recharge. In the Sandomierz Basin, he said, the water balance has been negative for 14 consecutive years.

He urged “yesterday-level” action: river re-naturalization—ending regulation and deepening—and backfilling drainage ditches, which he said are several times more extensive in Poland than natural rivers.

While State Forests tout small-scale retention projects, “the scale is too small. Eliminating at least some drainage ditches on their land could deliver much better effects,” he said. “These are very simple things to do, and there’s no justification for not implementing them.”

Asked whether the Vistula could one day dry up completely, Bednarek said that scenario is “highly improbable” given the river’s size and flows: among Poland’s rivers that may desiccate, “the Vistula would be the last.”

(jh)

Source: PAP