The US think tank made the assessment in its latest report on the war in Ukraine, published on Thursday night.
The ISW wrote: “Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko continued to set informational conditions to resist Russian pressure to enter the war against Ukraine by claiming that NATO is preparing to attack Belarus.”
The US experts noted that Lukashenko “blamed Ukraine and NATO for a growing number of provocations near the Belarus-Ukrainian border.”
Belarus’ strongman leader also said that Ukraine was “trying to drag NATO forces into the war.”
Lukashenko further stated that “Belarusian officials managed to deter a potential adversary from using military force against Belarus” and that “NATO is building up forces and intensifying combat training in neighbouring countries,” according to the ISW.
Belarus’ Minister of Defence Viktor Khrenin said there was “no direct preparation for war,” adding that Belarus will only defend its territory, the Washington-based think tank noted.
Meanwhile, Vadym Skibitsky, a representative of the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR), reported that there were “no signs of the formation of a strike group on Belarusian territory.” According to the ISW experts, Lukashenko and Khrenin’s statements are part of “an ongoing information operation aimed at fixing Ukrainian forces on the border with Belarus in response to the threat of Belarus entering the war.”
The US think tank added: “Lukashenko and Khrenin also likely focused the information operation on supposed NATO aggression and provocative activities along the Belarusian border to suggest that the Belarusian military needs to remain in Belarus to defend against potential NATO aggression, and thus set informational conditions for resisting Russian pressure to enter the war in Ukraine.”
According to the ISW, “Belarusian entry into the Russian war on Ukraine is extremely unlikely.”
Ukraine repels Russian attacks around 14 settlements in Donbas
Meanwhile, over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian forces repelled Russian attacks around fourteen settlements in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, collectively known as the Donbas, Polish state news agency PAP reported on Friday, citing Ukraine’s General Staff.
In its early morning update from the frontlines, Ukraine’s military command said: “Over the past day, units of the Defense Forces of Ukraine repelled the attacks of the occupiers in the areas of Novoselivske, Stelmakhivka, Chervopopivka, and Bilohorivka in the Luhansk oblast and Hryhorivka, Vyimka, Bakhmut, Opytne, Klishchiivka, Kurdyumivka, Pivnichne, Pervomaiske, Krasnohorivka, and Maryinka in the Donetsk oblast.”
At the same time, Ukraine’s air force “carried out 19 strikes on the areas of concentration of personnel, weapons and military equipment, as well as 3 strikes on the positions of the enemy's anti-aircraft missile systems,” officials in Kyiv said.
Over the past 24 hours, Ukrainian artillery hit four Russian control points, among other targets, the PAP news agency reported.
It came after Russian forces on Thursday conducted five missile attacks on civilian infrastructure in Ukraine’s northeastern Kharkiv region and the eastern Donetsk province, PAP reported.
Russia’s military death toll in Ukraine exceeds 90,000
The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Russia had now lost more than 90,000 troops since invading Ukraine in February, including 650 servicemen over the last day.
In addition, Ukrainian forces have taken out a total of 2,916 Russian tanks, 5,883 armoured personnel vehicles and 280 aircraft, among other military equipment, Ukraine’s military authorities said.
Shortage of munitions limits Russia’s offensive potential: UK defence ministry
Russia’s shortage of munitions is likely “one of the main factors” curbing its potential to launch new offensive operations, according to the British Ministry of Defence.
In its latest intelligence update on the war in Ukraine, published on Twitter on Friday, the UK defence ministry wrote: “Russia’s shortage of munitions … is likely one of the main factors currently limiting Russia’s potential to restart effective, large scale offensive ground operations.”
The UK analysts also noted that Russia’s retreat from the west bank of the Dnipro River in November “has provided the Ukrainian Armed Forces with opportunities to strike additional Russian logistics nodes and lines of communication.”
“This threat has highly likely prompted Russian logisticians to relocate supply nodes, including rail transfer points, further south and east,” the British defence ministry assessed.
Now “Russian logistics units will need to conduct extra labour-intensive loading and unloading from rail to road transport,” the UK experts said, adding that “Road moves will subsequently still be vulnerable to Ukrainian artillery as they move on to supply Russian forward defensive positions.”
Friday is day 282 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
pm/gs
Source: understandingwar.org, PAP, facebook.com/GeneralStaff.ua, UK Ministry of Defence