Former Commander of US military forces in Europe, General Ben Hodges has given an interview to the Times Radio, expressing his opinion that the prevailing narrative about the status of the war in Ukraine is quite wrong.
The "narrative" that is gaining ground is that the war has come to a standstill or even stalemate. While Hodges shares the "disappointment" that Ukraine did not make faster inroads into the 17% of Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia, he emphasized several key Ukrainian successes and Russian failures:
- Russia has lost 20% of its Navy - and Ukraine has achieved this without a navy of its own.
- Russia has been at war with Ukraine since 2014, not 2022, and so after 9 years of war, Russia's results are extremely poor.
- Ukraine has every opportunity of taking back Crimea, particularly if its military hardware is bolstered by long-range weapons and F-16 jets.
- Ukraine's morale is very high, however there is a serious risk of declining morale among Ukraine's allies.
- Ukraine has managed to inflict huge levels of damage to Russia with limited resources - using skilled strategy and tactics, particularly in the Black Sea.
However, Hodges expressed more concern that western pessimism not turn into a self-fulfilling prophecy. As disappointment over Ukraine's progress grows, disappointment based partly on unrealistic expectations, western allies may be less inclined to provide the military resources Ukraine so badly needs.
Hodges said that Russia's main target now is "to destroy Ukraine's will and also to destroy our will in the West to continue supporting Ukraine."
He summarised Russia's "only hope" as "that we will lose the will, because the Ukrainian people are certainly not [losing the will to fight]." In particular he believes that Russia's hold on Crimea is becoming very weak - despite Ukraine's lack of a navy.
Source: Times Radio
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