The proposal, published by US media outlets, increases pressure on Ukraine to accept a quick deal with Russia, placing the invaded country in one of its most vulnerable positions since the conflict began 45 months ago.
Much of the plan echoes Moscow’s long-standing maximalist demands. Among them: forcing Ukraine to surrender the remaining parts of the Donetsk region still under its control—a swath of heavily fortified territory that includes major cities such as Kramatorsk and Sloviansk, where Ukrainian forces could, in theory, resist for months.
The document also calls for cutting Ukraine’s armed forces to 600,000 troops, writing a constitutional ban on NATO membership, and granting Russian the status of a second official language.
The handful of provisions that appear beneficial to Ukraine—including US security guarantees and the transfer of USD 100 billion in frozen Russian assets—are vaguely described and raise questions about feasibility and Western unity.
It is unclear whether European partners were meaningfully consulted.
The leaked document itself is disjointed and inconsistent, with clauses that look hastily inserted by Moscow, such as a blanket ban on "Nazi ideologies."
That tone is hardly surprising, given that the plan is widely believed to have been shaped by Kirill Dmitriev, a close adviser to Russian leader Vladimir Putin, and Steve Witkoff, a special envoy for US President Donald Trump.
Although US officials were reportedly looped in and Ukraine’s national security chief was shown the proposal, the plan is said to bear Trump's approval.
The ultimatum-like pressure conveyed to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has been described by Western diplomats who attended a meeting between US Army Secretary Dan Driscoll and NATO ambassadors in Kyiv on Friday.
According to several accounts shared with Western correspondents in the Ukrainian capital, Washington is effectively demanding that Kyiv endorse the plan before Thanksgiving—Thursday, November 27—with only minor adjustments open to negotiation.
Driscoll reportedly told European ambassadors he was "optimistic that now is the time for peace," but signaled that Washington was unlikely to bend.
"We need to get this shit done," he was quoted as saying, arguing that Ukraine cannot win the war militarily.
Zelensky's somber address to the nation later that day underscored the stakes.
He said Ukraine now faces a wrenching choice: accept a highly unfavorable deal or risk losing a key partner while bracing for an exceptionally hard winter.
He appealed for unity, vowed to continue diplomatic talks with Europe and the United States, and on Saturday approved the Ukrainian delegation for negotiations with both Washington and Moscow.
His message appeared aimed at preparing Ukrainians for painful decisions—or gauging the risk of mass protests should Kyiv accept a deal widely viewed as damaging to Ukraine.
After 45 months of war, Ukrainians are exhausted, but remain acutely aware that a coerced settlement would likely be violated by Moscow and offer only a temporary pause before another assault.
Russia, for its part, has reacted with thinly veiled satisfaction.
After days of silence, Putin said on Friday evening that the Kremlin had reviewed the proposal and was open to discussions. In practical terms, that signals Russia may intensify military pressure in the coming days while pushing to further tilt the 28 points in its favor.
Even in its current form, the plan does not satisfy Moscow’s maximal demands—particularly its pursuit of political control over Ukraine—and the Kremlin is unlikely to tolerate any Western, especially American, security guarantees for Kyiv.
As a result, Ukraine is facing a dual squeeze: diplomatic pressure from the United States and military pressure from Russia.
Even accelerated coordination with European allies may not be enough to offset it.
The coming days could produce decisions with profound consequences—not only for Ukraine, but for the security of Europe as a whole.
Tadeusz Iwański
Tadeusz Iwański
The author is head of the Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova department at the Warsaw-based Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW). From 2006 to 2011, he worked at Polskie Radio dla Zagranicy, the Polish public broadcaster's international service.