Speaking to Polish Radio, Cichocki said both sides of the war were now "exhausted" by its human and economic costs, creating conditions for some form of agreement.
He pointed to mounting pressure on Russia’s economy and limits to its recruitment capacity and missile stockpiles.
His comments come as US envoy Steve Witkoff, who earlier discussed elements of a possible peace plan with Ukrainian officials, is expected in Moscow on Tuesday for further talks.
However, he argued that Moscow’s apparent willingness to discuss a ceasefire should be treated with caution.
According to Cichocki, Russia is not seeking a lasting peace but rather a pause in fighting that would allow it to rebuild offensive capabilities.
He described the Russian strategy as "diabolical," claiming it aims ultimately at reducing Ukraine to a Belarus-style satellite state and turning Poland and other Central European countries into a buffer zone in which "nothing important happens without Russia’s consent."
He added that Moscow seeks to push the United States out of the region and return to a great-power model of managing global affairs.
Cichocki said Poland should play an active role in any talks to ensure its security interests are protected, warning that the current moment is "critical" for Warsaw.
Poland, he noted, remains a key transit route for military assistance to Ukraine and would be central to any arrangements that follow a ceasefire.
That position, he argued, gives Warsaw both the right and the responsibility to shape the diplomatic process.
Territorial issues remain the most sensitive point in discussions between Ukrainian, American and Russian negotiators, the diplomat said.
He cautioned that any concession allowing Russia to retain full control of the Donbas would pose a major threat to Ukraine, noting the region’s heavy fortifications and strategic importance.
Losing it, he argued, would leave Ukraine more vulnerable to renewed Russian offensives.
Following weekend and Monday talks between Ukrainian representatives and US officials in Florida, both sides reported progress but acknowledged that several areas – including Russian territorial demands – still require further negotiation.
(ał)
Source: IAR