Hundreds of thousands of people were periodically left without electricity and heating. Not a single power plant escaped damage, and some—such as the Darnytsia plant on the outskirts of Kyiv—were permanently disabled.
The entire energy sector has been weakened, making reconstruction ahead of the next winter more difficult and costly.
That relief, however, proved short-lived. The US-Israeli attack on Iran, which triggered a war in the Persian Gulf now approaching its first month, has created new challenges for Ukraine.
In the early days of the conflict, it became clear that US allies in the Arab world, targeted by Iranian retaliatory attacks using hundreds of Shahed drones, were relying on Patriot air defense systems to intercept them.
Kyiv responded by offering its own expertise, operational experience and tactical solutions—most notably interceptor drones.
The aim was to secure supplies of the highly sought-after PAC-3 MSE missiles, the only systems capable of effectively countering Russian ballistic missiles.
There is no indication, however, that the offer has been accepted. A shortage of these interceptors threatens Ukraine’s ability to protect critical infrastructure from Russian attacks, let alone rebuild it before the next winter.
Those attacks have not subsided with the arrival of spring. On the contrary, they have become more brazen, as illustrated by a recent daytime strike on Lviv.
Although deliveries of missiles to Ukraine continue, the war with Iran has introduced new uncertainty about their reliability.
Politically, President Volodymyr Zelensky faces the challenge of waning US attention and resources as Washington focuses on the Middle East.
Peace negotiations, which had been conducted intensively for months in various locations around the world, have stalled. For the past month, no meetings have taken place between Ukrainian, US and Russian delegations. Kyiv pushed for the latest visit of its delegation to Florida, but talks with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner produced no tangible results.
President Donald Trump remains a highly controversial figure in Ukraine, often seen as a destabilizing force and, in practice, aligned with Russia. At the same time, the United States remains an indispensable partner, providing capabilities crucial to Ukraine’s defense, including satellite intelligence, Starlink communications and access to weapons purchases financed by European funds.
A US withdrawal from efforts to negotiate an end to the war with Russia would pose a serious risk to Ukraine, potentially jeopardizing this support.
A prolonged conflict with Iran could also increase pressure on Kyiv to accept unfavorable terms, as Trump may seek to claim a foreign policy “success” ahead of the mid-term elections.
In recent weeks, tensions between Trump and Zelensky have escalated, with the former declining a summit meeting. A similar standoff in February last year ended in a heated confrontation at the White House.
The longer the United States remains engaged in the Middle East, the more it may come to see cooperation with Russia as necessary.
The conflict has already led to a weakening of US oil sanctions, allowing Moscow to recover losses from recent months.
According to the Bloomberg news agency, Russia’s weekly oil export revenues recently rose to USD 1.7 billion—the highest level since 2022.
This is also driven by rising global oil prices, which have exceeded USD 100 per barrel due to the ongoing disruption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global energy exports.
Rising oil and gas prices are boosting Russia’s budget while straining Ukraine’s. In the first three weeks of the war, gasoline prices in Ukraine rose by around 15 percent, diesel fuel by more than 20 percent, and natural gas—largely imported from Hungary—by over 50 percent.
Higher fuel costs will increase the burden of the war effort, as most military equipment runs on diesel, and will also weigh on businesses and households, many of which rely on generators during blackouts.
Higher gas prices will also make it harder for Ukraine to fill its underground storage facilities ahead of winter and will push up the cost of imported fertilizers, a key factor in the competitiveness of Ukraine’s agricultural sector.
For Russia, the war in the Middle East is a windfall—and the longer it lasts, the better. For Ukraine, the opposite is true.
Tadeusz Iwański
Tadeusz Iwański
The author is head of the Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova department at the Warsaw-based Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW). From 2006 to 2011, he worked at Polskie Radio dla Zagranicy, the Polish public broadcaster's international service.