General Stanisław Koziej, professor of military science, gave an interview on Monday to Kamila Biedrzycka of Poland's daily Super Express. He gave his opinion of what he perceived as Russian military weakness and the possibility of a Russian invasion of Poland.
Poland's deputy defence minister Marcin Ociepa has spoken, in a Friday interview for RMF24, about the possibilties of a Russian invasion, as well as Russian preparatory actions such as crossing the Polish border by small groups of Russian soldiers and cyber-attacks.
A New Cold War
General Koziej said that we are living in a new "Cold War", one that is already "hot" in Ukraine, with the world divided between Russia and the West. In this new reality, we cannot, believes Koziej, exclude the possibility that Russia could threaten Poland.
Three broad areas of Russian military weakness
General Koziej detailed three broad areas of Russian military weakness:
- The Russian army itself. The quality of leadership, strategy and tactical operations have been exposed as weak. Morale in the army is low and military equipment is out of date or incomplete.
- The Russian arms industry. It has proven unable to produce weapons and munitions at a rate necessary for war. This incapacity is partly due to the international sanctions imposed on Russia. Russia has been forced to look to Iran and even, "comically", to North Korea for support in delivering arms.
- Russia has lost its capacity to run disinformation campaigns. Up until the 2022 invasion, Russia was quite effective in running campaigns of "lies", "disinformation" and hacking operations. Due to the war, Russia has lost credibility and a minimum of credibility is necessary, Koziej argues, to be able to deceive global public opinion with false information.
Could Russia attack Poland in the foreseeable future?
Minister Ociepa has suggested that realistically Russia could attack Poland in 3 years' time. General Koziej responded to these and other security concerns:
"If Russia is victorious in Ukraine - for instance by using nuclear blackmail - then it may feel empowered, destined, to continue blackmailing the West, for example by cutting out a corridor of Polish territory to Kaliningrad."
However, Koziej does not believe that the date of 3 years is realistic. Russia has, in his opinion, suffered too much destruction and disorganisation in Ukraine for 3 years to be enough to regroup militarily. "Russia's arsenal - especially its conventional arsenal - has suffered considerable damage," Koziej continued.
General Koziej assumed that Russia, if victorious in Ukraine, might consider a "lightning" attack on Poland. This would require a rapid attack of conventional forces into a portion of Poland, followed by the threat of tactical nuclear weapons. However, Koziej argues that this kind of operation requires a very high level of conventional forces and that Russia has been exposed in Ukraine as falling well below the required standard.
Sources: Super Express, RMF24, Twitter
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