Poles went to the ballot box on Sunday in the country’s eighth presidential election since the fall of communism in 1989.
Polling stations opened at 7 a.m. as voters chose from among 13 candidates, several of whom were backed by the country’s largest political parties.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s centrist, pro-EU coalition—victorious in the October 2023 parliamentary elections after eight years of right-wing rule—aims to consolidate its hold on power by gaining control of the presidency.
Trzaskowski, a prominent politician from the ruling Civic Coalition (KO), received 31.2 percent of the vote, according to updated exit poll projections released early on Monday.
Meanwhile, Nawrocki, a historian supported by the opposition right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party, garnered 29.7 percent, according to pollster Ipsos.
Far-right candidate Sławomir Mentzen of the Confederation party came in third with 14.5 percent.
Another far-right politician, Grzegorz Braun, finished fourth with 6.3 percent, ahead of lower-house Speaker Szymon Hołownia, co-founder of the centre-right Third Way alliance, who secured 4.9 percent, according to the updated poll.
Adrian Zandberg from the left-wing opposition Together party came in sixth with 4.8 percent, followed by leftist senator Magdalena Biejat of the co-governing New Left group, who garnered 4.1 percent.
The six remaining candidates—left-wing veteran Joanna Senyszyn; celebrity journalist Krzysztof Stanowski; right-wing Republican Marek Jakubiak; economist Artur Bartoszewicz; pro-Russian figure Maciej Maciak; and lawyer Marek Woch—shared the remaining 4.5 percent of votes cast.
An initial exit poll released moments after voting ended at 9 p.m. on Sunday had projected 30.8 percent for Trzaskowski and 29.1 percent for Nawrocki.
The polling company said its "late poll” findings released early on Monday combined exit poll data with partial official results covering 90 percent of the vote, and were expected to differ only slightly from the final tally.
Turnout was a record 66.8 percent, broadcaster TVP Info reported.
More than half a million Poles living abroad registered to vote in the presidential election by absentee ballot, according to officials.
The conservative outgoing president, Andrzej Duda, first elected in 2015, was constitutionally barred from seeking a third term. His second term ends on August 6.
Runoff set for June 1
Under Polish election law, if no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round, a runoff is held two weeks later.
If the exit poll results hold, Trzaskowski and Nawrocki will face off in the second round of voting on June 1.
The official results are expected to be announced later on Monday.
The winning candidate will serve a five-year term as head of state, overseeing foreign and defence policy and holding veto power over legislation.
Trzaskowski, a political scientist specialising in European studies, has served as mayor of Warsaw since October 2018 and was re-elected last year.
He was a member of the European Parliament from 2009 to 2013, Poland’s administration and digitisation minister from 2013 to 2014, and deputy foreign minister from 2014 to 2015.
He previously ran for president in 2020, losing to Duda.
His rival, Nawrocki, heads the Institute of National Remembrance, a state-run agency tasked with documenting and prosecuting Nazi and Soviet crimes against Polish citizens.
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Source: Polish Radio, IAR, PAP