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When and how will the Ukrainian counteroffensive come?

07.06.2023 17:05
Experts, including Poland's General Skrzypczak, attempt to forecast the course of the war in the crucial coming weeks - in the midst of an information war running in parallel to the real war. 
General Waldemar Skrzypczak
General Waldemar SkrzypczakPR24

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu stated on Tuesday that Ukraine's counteroffensive had not only begun but had been successfully "thwarted" by Russia.

Ukraine's national security and defence council secretary, Oleksiy Danilov, responded with some bravado: “When we start the counteroffensive, everyone will know about it, they will see it.”

In the midst of this information war, experts and strategists have been attempting to second guess the upcoming stages in the war. Poland's General Skrzypczak spoke to the conservative portal fronda.pl.

Skrzypczak assessed that the Russian strikes against the dam in Nova Kakhovka were designed to limit Ukraine's counteroffesive options. He has elsewhere assessed (in Rzeczpospolita) that the flooding caused by the destruction of the dam has delayed Ukraine's plans by 8 to 10 days:

General Skrzypczak estimates that Ukraine's counteroffensive will begin mid-June, because they must, according to Skrzypczak, demonstrate to NATO their capacity to regain territory before the upcoming NATO Summit 11-13 July in Vilnius:

Skrzypczak had words of warning for both the Ukrainian and the Russian sides. He suggested that Ukraine has at its disposal 80 to 100 000 additional soldiers for the upcoming offensive. He suggested this is enough manpower for a strike in one, at most two key locations. The sizes of the Russian and Ukrainian armies are not comparable to the Russian and German armies during World War II.

On the other hand, Skrzypak interpreted the Russian attack on the dam in Nova Kakhovka as an act of desperation since the flooding also limits Russian army movements. Russia is, according to Skrzypczak, at a loss as to where Ukraine will attack.

Sources: Fronda.pl, Reuters, The Guardian, Twitter



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