Sergi Kapanadze, director of the GRASS policy think tank, told Poland's PAP news agency that the Georgian Dream party has already taken control of the executive, judicial, and legislative branches.
In his view, the only remaining counterweight is civil society, including independent media, non-governmental organisations, and street protests.
Kapanadze said it remains unclear whether the authorities act on direct Russian orders, but he insisted that this question is less important than the outcome.
“These people in recent years have done everything Russia could want,” he said. Yet, in his view, most Georgians do not support the current government’s course and still want a Western path for their country.
“In Georgia there will soon be no opposition parties, because they will be outlawed,” Kapanadze said.
He argued that this would make Georgia one of the few countries in Europe without real opposition in parliament. “As a result we will have a one-party state,” he added.
He said Georgian Dream has asked the constitutional court to ban three main opposition forces, including the United National Movement of jailed former president Mikheil Saakashvili.
The court, which he described as fully controlled by the authorities, is expected to approve the move.
“One thing is to ban a party, and another thing is to put an opposition figure in prison,” Kapanadze said. “In recent years many opposition leaders have ended up in jail.”
He cited the case of Nika Melia, leader of the Coalition for Change, who has been imprisoned since May after refusing to appear before a parliamentary inquiry.
Kapanadze argued that a wave of new laws has sharply pushed Georgia away from European democratic standards.
A recent report titled “Not the Same Country,” prepared for the Juliusz Mieroszewski Centre for Dialogue, singles out two measures. One is a law on “transparency of foreign influence,” widely known in Georgia as “the Russian law,” which forces organisations with at least 20 percent foreign funding to register and file detailed reports.
The second is a “foreign agents” law, often called FARA, which extends these rules to individuals and provides for criminal penalties.
“As a result of these regulations a large number of organisations had to suspend their work,” Kapanadze said, adding that court cases against activists almost never end in their favour.
He recalled that Georgia pledged close cooperation with civil society when it signed an Association Agreement with the European Union in 2013. The deal remains in force even though the government of Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze has frozen EU membership talks until 2028.
According to Kapanadze, Georgia once had a vibrant media landscape, supported by liberal rules on freedom of expression introduced in the early 2000s.
He said Georgian Dream began to dismantle independent media from around 2016, and that changes to broadcasting law together with the “Russian law” have made survival difficult for critical outlets.
One of the three independent television stations has already closed, he said, and the other two are in serious financial trouble.
He accused the authorities of routinely using violence, including against journalists. He mentioned the case of reporter Mzia Amaglobeli, a Sakharov Prize laureate, who received a two-year prison sentence after slapping a police officer who had insulted her.
Kapanadze also referred to findings by the BBC that security forces used a chemical agent known as camite to disperse anti-government protests last year.
“You cannot build a dictatorship without violence,” he said, calling it a key tool of Georgian Dream’s policy.
Despite the pressure, protests have continued, especially in the capital Tbilisi. To mark the anniversary of the decision to suspend EU membership talks until 2028, thousands gathered on Rustaveli Avenue, the city’s main artery.
“Protests have been taking place non-stop since November last year, when parliamentary elections took place,” Kapanadze said, although he added that turnout varies.
In his view, Georgian Dream “is not able to finalise its vision of dictatorship because the ‘islands of resistance’ are still able to maintain their opposition.”
The crucial factor, he argued, is the perseverance of Georgian society.
Kapanadze believes the ruling party’s drive towards absolute power became visible after 2016, when Georgian Dream won a constitutional majority and began work on a new constitution aimed at weakening independent institutions.
Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the opening of a clearer path to EU membership for several countries added pressure, he said, since reforms demanded by Brussels could undermine the ruling party’s hold on power.
He stressed that the struggle over Georgia’s future belongs first of all to its citizens.
“I completely disagree with those who say we should wait for some kind of international move. No, this is a purely Georgian matter,” he said. European partners should continue to support Georgian society, he argued, but “this is not their fight.”
Founded in October 2012 by Georgian academics and professionals in public administration and policy, Georgia’s Reforms Associates (GRASS) is an independent, non-governmental policy center that monitors public policy and offers recommendations to decision-makers.
It carries out research-based analysis and works to engage the public and raise awareness on a broad range of policy questions. GRASS is a vocal supporter of Georgia’s Euro-Atlantic path, and an important part of the country’s nongovernmental sector.
(rt)
Source: PAP