The US expert issued the warning in a recent article for the Washington-based think tank the Atlantic Council, biznesalert.pl said.
Warrick noted that recent mysterious leaks in the Russia-to-Germany undersea gas pipelines, Nord Stream 1 and Nord Stream 2, “received widespread publicity.”
Mysterious drones spotted near Norwegian oil and gas platforms
Meanwhile, a week earlier, unidentified drones were spotted flying close to Norwegian offshore oil and gas platforms, “which got little publicity but was potentially far more threatening,” the US expert said.
He added that the unmanned aerial vehicles likely weren't “hobbyist drones.”
He said: “To fly a drone over facilities so far from land requires satellite navigation and control systems along with a skilled operator capable of launching and retrieving a drone from a boat or ship at sea.”
Drones flown from Russian vessels?
The US expert warned that “if drones are being flown from Russian vessels, it demonstrates to oilfield operators and governments that Norway’s offshore platforms are at risk.”
He added that if Russia’s suspected involvement in the Nord Stream leaks was confirmed, it would “demonstrate that Norway’s gas pipelines to Europe are also at risk from similar Russian sabotage, and that Russia is willing to use covert capabilities, regardless of any environmental consequences.”
Potential impact if Norway’s energy supplies to Europe were to be disrupted
The US expert said: “If Norwegian oil and gas deliveries to Europe are cut off this winter, prices would skyrocket and the impact would be felt worldwide, including in the United States. More importantly, there is no way northern European governments, already struggling to replace Russian gas, could replace lost Norwegian gas.”
According to Warrick, “Repairs would take months. European governments would be forced to choose which homes, businesses, and factories to let freeze.”
Under such a scenario, “Putin may believe that popular sentiment would push NATO governments, especially Germany, to pressure Ukraine into accepting peace on Putin’s terms, allowing him to keep the Ukrainian territory he now considers Russian,” the US ex-diplomat said.
What West should do
In his article, Warrick said that “to prevent this, the United States, Norway, and NATO need to take immediate public steps to protect Norwegian, British, Danish, and Dutch offshore oil and gas platforms.”
This would include NATO naval forces, including the US Navy, being “publicly deployed to guard offshore oil and gas platforms and pipelines that supply gas to Europe,” he added.
Also, the United States, Norway and NATO “should publicise Russian ship movements, even submarine movements, and radar tracks of any drone flights from Russian vessels or drones that fly near offshore oil and gas facilities and pipelines,” Warrick proposed.
Deterring Russia’s hybrid warfare
He added: “The best way to deter or reduce the political and economic effects of Russian hybrid warfare this winter is to expose what Russia is doing, starting now.”
“An act of sabotage against Norway’s offshore oil and gas facilities that can be directly, quickly, and publicly attributed to Russia would be an act of war against NATO, and that is something Putin should not want to risk,” Warrick concluded.
Thursday was day 225 of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
pm/gs
Source: biznesalert.pl, atlanticcouncil.org, dailymail.co.uk