The ISW made the assessment in its latest report on the war in Ukraine, published on Monday night.
The US experts noted that the US Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines on December 3 said that both Ukrainian and Russian forces would use winter to “refit, resupply and reconstitute” because the pace of the war would slow in this period.
The ISW described this view as “mistaken,” saying that hardened ground was relatively easy for heavy equipment to pass over and so winter was a better time to wage battle than the autumn rainy season or the spring thaw.
Now senior US government officials “may be correcting their assessments about Ukraine’s ability and intent to conduct counteroffensive operations this winter,” the US think tank reported.
It cited a senior US military official as saying on Monday: “We know the Ukrainians can fight and fight well under these [winter] conditions."
The ISW also reported that Ukraine’s Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said on Sunday that Kyiv’s forces would resume their counteroffensive as soon as the weather permitted.
At a news conference with his Swedish counterpart Pål Jonson in Odesa, Reznikov said: "Weather conditions, a transition from a dry autumn to a not yet frosty winter … We have watched rain and very difficult conditions for offensives from any side. Because the ground is wet, and wheeled vehicles almost cannot pass over it."
He added: “I believe this decrease in activity is related to weather conditions. But the armed forces of Ukraine are not thinking of stopping. Therefore, using the moment, when the ground is firmer, I am convinced that we will resume our counter offensives and the campaign to liberate our land."
Costs of Ukraine war undermine Putin's geopolitical campaigns
The ISW also assessed that “the cost of the Russian war in Ukraine will likely continue to undermine Russian President Vladimir Putin’s geopolitical campaigns worldwide,” including in the Middle East, South Caucasus and Central Asia.
The US think tank reiterated that “Russian forces have been moving equipment and personnel from other conflict zones such as Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh and may deprioritize other combat and soft-power engagements in favor of sustaining a protracted war in Ukraine.”
According to the ISW, Putin "is seemingly still unwilling to sacrifice his geopolitical initiatives in the short-term, however, and risks facing a financial predicament in which he will not be able to balance maximalist goals in Ukraine with his global power projection campaigns.”
The US analysts said that Putin “continued attempts to reestablish Russia’s position in Central Asia by unsuccessfully proposing to create a trilateral union among Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan in late November and during a meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan, on December 9.”
Tuesday is day 293 of Russia’s war on Ukraine.
(pm/gs)
Source: understandingwar.org, defence24.pl